Thoughts On 'El Clasico'

With apologies to Leicester City and Nottingham Forest, there's only one game worth looking at today.

There are actually a few value markets left for Barcelona v Real Madrid, so let's try to make some sense from them. The following stats are for the last fifteen league games at Nou Camp; those in italic are for the last 20 league games where Barcelona have been at home and Real Madrid have been away.

Barcelona Win
The hosts have won the last two meetings, but those victories are the only two in the last five meetings and the hosts have only won four of the last ten - in fact, consecutive Barca victories over Real Madrid have been pretty rare recently. The last time Barcelona won consecutive games was March 98 and February 99 and - with the exception of the last two seasons - the pattern is that a draw normally follows the season after a Barcelona win. Hardly a convincing case for a Barcelona win.

Barcelona have won 17 of their last 20 home games in La Liga, but Real Madrid have only lost twice away from home in the same period and are currently on a sixteen game unbeaten streak away from home.

Barcelona Clean Sheet
Slightly clearer. Real Madrid have failed to score in nine of the last 15 games and both of Barcelona's most recent victories have been to nil.

Barcelona have kept clean sheets in half of their last 20 league games, Real have only been shut out five times in the same period - but have only lost twice when they've failed to score.

Conclusion: possible, but unlikely. Although Real Madrid have scored eight of their ten away goals in La Liga in the second half, Barcelona have conceded four of the five goals scored against them at Nou Camp in the first half and seem to be vulnerable from the 25th minute onwards.

Less Than 1.5 Goals
Only four of the last fifteen games have featured less than 1.5 goals, but that includes two of the last three. There's been an average of 2.4 goals in these games.

Barcelona have only featured in four games from the last 20 where less than 1.5 goals were scored - and they won all four. Real Madrid have featured in seven - but three were in La Liga this season and they've drawn two.

Conclusion: possible, but also unlikely - for similar reasons to those concerning a Barcelona clean sheet.

Less Than 3.5 Goals
13 of the last 15 games have featured less than 3.5 goals - the last one was a 3-3 draw in March 2007.

13 of Barca's last 20 games have featured under 3.5 goals, four of their six home league games this season have been under 3.5 but their last two games (5-0 v Sevilla and 3-1 over Villareal) have been over. 12 of Real Madrid's last 20 games have been under 3.5 goals including four of their six road trips this season.

Conclusion: this could be the way forward. It may be a safer bet than under 2.5 goals - given the firepower both sides possess, there's a chance that rather than quantity of goals, we may be looking at quality.

0-0 Correct Score
Only one game in the last fifteen (November 2002)

Barcelona have not featured in a 0-0 draw at the Nou Camp since April 2008(!) - a 46 game streak. Real Madrid have already drawn 0-0 with Levante and Mallorca this season.

Conclusion: a massive trap here that could pay out - any time there's a slightly ridiculous streak on the line it's worth opposing, so even though it's a contradiction in terms of the arguments immediately above, backing 0-0 might be worth it.

RECOMMENDATIONS
The numbers I normally use indicate a 58.3% chance of a draw at half time with less than one goal being scored, which also fits the hypothesis that the second half will be the highest scoring half. However, they also indicate that although Real Madrid won't win (86%), Barcelona may not win either - Barcelona draw no bet could be worth a look, as could the draw. I don't think there will be that many goals either, but under 3.5 goals is potentially safer than under 2.5.

In terms of 'gut feeling', backing either Messi or Villa to score first and between 21 and 30 minutes as the time of the first goal might be worth a minimum stakes investment.

I'm tempted to say that this is worth watching rather than getting involved with, but with some value to be had in certain markets I don't think going overboard with staking is a good idea though. Let's hope it's a good game and at least lives up to some of the hype.