NFL Week 4 Preview

In their Pro Football Prospectus 2008, the analysts at Football Outsiders published some interesting research based on how likely teams were to make the playoffs based on how many games each team had won at a specific stage of the season.


Based on that article, these are the most important games in Week 4:

Pittsburgh (3-0) v Baltimore (2-1)
NY Giants (1-2) v Chicago (3-0)
San Diego (1-2) v Arizona (2-1)
Miami (2-1) v New England (2-1)


If both Pittsburgh and Chicago lost this weekend, it wouldn't be the end of the world for either of them. At 3-0 they currently have a 79.5% chance of making the post season, at 3-1 the figure is 66%. So far so good;  that's probably another way of saying that they're in control of their own destinies (haven't actually heard that in commentary yet, but it won't be too long!)


However, if any of the teams that currently have 2-1 records lose, their chances of post season play are reduced from 53.8% to 33.1% - as you can see above, this statistic automatically makes New England's trip to Miami extremely important, but as that's the Monday night game I'll post about that game nearer the time. 


So in chronological order...


Pittsburgh Steelers should beat Baltimore Ravens but probably not by much. The Steelers average margin of victory (MOV) in their last 15 regular season wins at Heinz field is 9.5 points, but as their average margin of defeat (MOD) at home is 5.4 points then there's not a lot of wiggle room, especially as Baltimore's average road MOV is 13; their MOD is 10 points. Steelers between 3 and 13 points could be the way to go; Pittsburgh has won 10 of the 14 games between these two in Pennsylvania.


San Diego Chargers v Arizona Cardinals: Much easier to predict, even though this game is between two teams that won their respective divisions last season. The Cardinals have won half of their last twenty road trips but to be honest five of those wins were against teams that have been amongst the worst in the NFL for the last few seasons; they only avoided defeat at home against Oakland last week due to several missed field goals including one with four seconds left. The Chargers are on a six game winning streak at Qualcomm Stadium and the only reason they're 1-2 is due to poor away form rather than how they perform in Southern California. This game has the potential to be a blow out, but San Diego ought to win by at least a touchdown. Additional stat: the Chargers have won five of the six games between these two on the west coast.


NY Giants v Chicago Bears: I'm really not sure what's going to happen here - Chicago haven't won back to back games away from home since 2007, the season after they reached the Superbowl but the Giants definitely seem to be going backwards. Could go either way: Giants are the favourites but in a stat that I really wasn't expecting, the Bears have an 8-3-1 record versus the Giants in New York since 1940 - they've won the last five meetings and the Giants last won in their own backyard in October 1969!


At the other end of the spectrum, the five teams that have started with 0-3 records might as well pack up their tents. They have about a 3% chance of making the playoffs; amongst that group are one of the teams coming to play at Wembley at the end of the month, the San Francisco 49ers.

According to my numbers there are three value bets worth looking at (bold equals possible winners):
Seattle at St. Louis
Cincinnati at Cleveland
Washington at Philadelphia