NFL Parity Means Coupon Busting Opportunities

The NFL takes great pride in parity and the 'any given Sunday' ethos was in evidence yesterday - underdogs won six of the thirteen games that took place.

Unfortunately I was on the wrong end of some of those results! Pittsburgh lost to Baltimore despite leading with 32 seconds left, despite a huge day from Terrell Owens Cincinnati lost by three points to Cleveland and Washington's Donovan McNabb capped his return to Philadelphia with his new team with a win, even though the Eagles could have won the game with the last play of the game.

At least I got one right - San Diego 41, Arizona 10. I think that counts as a blow out. And the Giants beat the Bears in their own backyard at last.

I'm not too disheartened. The games I watched were close ones and went right down to the wire. Still, nearly right doesn't mean a big payday and there's always...well, tonight actually!

New England at Miami

Whoever wins this will be level with the NY Jets on 3-1 and once again this game looks really close - three points either way. I'm not going to recommend a winner (it's going to be close remember) but I'm interested by the total points market. Although this one might be a high scoring game, going back over the last 20 games in Miami between these two have produced an average of 42.5 points per game, but only nine of those games have been over that total - even if that includes three of the last five.

The weird thing about the high points totals is that they normally don't apply if Miami win - and they're the favourites. In the games the Dolphins have won, there has been an average of less than 40 points. It's only when the Patriots win that the numbers go up and even then it's only just over 50.

I'm not going to make any recommendations - the bookies are all over the place with this one. You can currently get over/under from 45.5 to 50 points, New England were favourites on Sunday and aren't on Monday etc. I've placed two bets on different unders and I'll post the results tomorrow, but I think this one could be a lot lower than most people think.

Not much Association Football this week, but there will be some picks this weekend plus a couple of long term recommendations based on what's already happened around some of the minor European leagues.