Spartak Nalchik Win Puts Pressure On Rubin Kazan

Important win for Spartak Nalchik: two goals in two minutes inside the first quarter of an hour set up a 2-1 win over Amkar Perm. Spartak Nalchik are now only a point behind second place Rubin Kazan, who travel to leaders Zenit for the game of the day in Russia.

I'll be returning to Russia later on, but as there's an early game in the J-League I've got my eye on I'll keep updating this post throughout the day.


Kashima Antlers take on Vissel Kobe (11:00am GMT, live streaming available at bet365 and Betfair) and the Antlers look like a decent prospect. Kashima have won the last three editions of the J-League, lead the 2010 version by a point from Shimizu S-Pulse and are currently on a ten game undefeated home streak in the league. Vissel Kobe's recent form has improved slightly but they still only have one away win in their last thirteen away games and they are currently only three points outside the relegation zone. Today's interesting fact: 'Vissel' is supposed to be a combination of the words 'victory' and 'vessel'...not sure in which universe that works, but more of the same here: http://www.engrish.com/


I'm going to leave the half time and goals markets alone as the data is not as clear cut as some of the other games I've analysed recently, all I would say about the goals market is that you can't have exactly 2.5 goals in a football match...Final: Kashima Antlers 3, Vissel Kobe 0


Next game is in Russia (18:00GMT): mid-table Dynamo Moscow against Krylya Sovetov, who are bottom. This is one of those games that ought to come with a bit of a health warning: based on this season's form in the Russian Premier league, Dynamo ought to win this easily. But look a bit further back and although it looks more likely that Krylya Sovetov won't win, it becomes less clear that a Dynamo win is as likely as it might appear.


The key stat in this game is that Krylya Sovetov have failed to score in half of their last twenty away league games in the Russian Premiership and have only scored one goal away from home this season - they took an early lead in a game they eventually lost 4-1. They have not scored at all in the second half of their away games. Combine that with Dynamo keeping clean sheets in half of their home league games this season and suddenly there are some possibilities:
 
* Given their first half record this season, Dynamo might not win the first half, but probably won't be behind either.
 
* Krylya probably won't win this game and there's a good chance they won't score either, but laying them outright could be expensive.
 
Dutching Dynamo Moscow and draw at half time might be worth looking at, but dutching the HT/FT scores that favour Dynamo and the draw could also work. Using £10 stakes and the current market prices, these options would look something like this:
 
Dynamo winning at half time: £10 at 1.87 = £8.70 profit (total return: £18.70)
Half time draw: £10 at 2.66 = £16.60 profit (total return: £26.60)
Dutching both (total stake £10): you'd back Dynamo at £5.87 and the draw at £2.66 to make a profit of 99p, but there's less risk involved than if you backed Dynamo to win the first half and they were level or losing at half time - you'd automatically be £10 down.


Dutching the HT/FT scores that favour Dynamo or the draw would have to include Dynamo to be leading at half time but the game to finish in a draw, which is currently around 25/1. Having already mentioned that Krylya Sovetov haven't scored in the second half all season, this would mean the visitors scoring at least twice - which is something they haven't done since they won at Khimki last August. So that possibility could either be completely disregarded or form the basis of an insurance bet.


The scenario immediately above would look like this:


Dynamo to win both halves: £8 at 2.00 (or evens if you prefer) = £8 profit
Draw/Dynamo: £3.55 at 4.5 = £12.43 profit
Draw/draw: £2 (minimum stake on Betfair) at 8.00 = £14 profit


So if any one of those outcomes won (remember, it's a dutch) it would mean an automatic £2.45 profit for a £13.55 stake. Of course, if none of them came up you'd be looking at an automatic £13.55 loss.


I'm going to go with dutching Dynamo or the draw at half time. The profit is smaller, but the chances of winning are greater. And I'm not really interested in losing money if I don't see any reason to! The insurance bet here would be either the draw or Krylya Sovetov at halftime, which is available at 1.88 with Bwin.com.


Half time: Dynamo Moscow 0, Krylya Sovetov 0. Full time: Dynamo Moscow 1, Krylya Sovetov 1!


There's yet another game that I'm interested in later today, Fluminense v Atletico Paranaense in Brazilian Serie A...and I'll come back to that later if I have time!


Well, I've got some time before my dinner arrives, so the final tip of the day is Fluminense to win - game kicks off at 10:30pm GMT. I've got five potential games to look at tomorrow...so the next post might be a bit minimalist.

From Nalchik With Love?

I admit I had to look up where it was - about as far south as you can go in Russia before you reach Georgia - but Spartak Nalchik look strong favourites to beat Amkar Perm today (5.30pm GMT).

Spartak Nalchik are currently fourth in the Russian Premier and a win today over Amkar would mean that with half the season gone they will have equalled their entire number of wins from last season. There's every reason to think that they will do so: amazingly, this is yet another game where the hosts are unbeaten at half time and the visitors haven't had a half time lead. There's also a high correlation between the half time/full time results between these two, so I'm recommeding the following:

* Dutch Spartak Nalchik or draw at half time - insurance bet is Amkar or draw
* Spartak Nalchik to win the game - insurance bet is as above, but I wouldn't recommend staking too much.

Will be back later with the result - I'm going to the cinema with my wife so I won't be able to monitor the game live.

Helsingborg Go Top In Sweden

Helsingborg 3-1 BK Hacken: despite a surprise early goal from Mattias Ostberg, Helsingborg reclaimed top spot in the Allsvenskan earlier this evening and now have a five point lead going into this weekend's games. 


Two goals from Eric Sundin and a winner from Marcus Holgersson seventeen minutes from time meant that the hosts kept not only their unbeaten half time record but also their home undefeated streak intact: they're away at Brommapojkarna next Monday, two days after Malmo entertain GAIS.


Romantic Queen finished fourth. I think a spell of paper trading is called for ;-)

Insurance Part 100

Harbinger surprised a more than a few people on Saturday and once again the insurance paid off. I'm really intrigued about how things have been going lately, it's been fun in a weird kind of way, the most preposterous hot streak I think I've had for a long while. I've got a pretty good idea why it's happening but I'm going to wait until the end of the month before analysing the results.

Anyway, there's a system game on Monday evening: Helsingborg v BK Hacken in the Swedish Allsvenskan. Malmo won 1-0 on Saturday (thanks to an Agon Mehmeti goal after 41 minutes) which means a Helsingborg win would send them into first place. This next bit sounds really familiar: Helsingborg haven't been behind at half time in home games all season and haven't lost at home all season either. This scenario seems to be cropping up a lot at the moment. In which case, it's probably fair to assume that Hacken won't be ahead at half time and Helsingborg will win the game; the insurance bet would be a half time double chance (usually available at bwin.com) for the draw or Hacken.

Thanks to the data at the excellent h2hstats.com site, there is another good reason for choosing a Helsingborg win. Of the teams that are currently involved in their league seasons, Helsingborg have the joint best points per game average at home (shared with Corinthians in Brazil's Serie A, who won again on Sunday) and the third best points per game average in all games (behind Zenit St. Petersburg in Russia and Derry City in Ireland).

Given the ambiguous position I find myself in due to horse racing, rather than recommending a straight lay I'm going to back Romantic Queen in the 4:00 at Wolverhampton this afternoon with a view to laying her later if the price moves as I expect it to.