Another thrilling game, I got the MVP and the points right (for a change!), Green Bay scored first and last so it might be worth revisiting those concepts next season - if there is a next season.
It's interesting to note the following about Superbowls since the 1990 season:
* Winning teams have scored 31 points in three games since 1990 - Denver in SBXXXII, New Orleans in XLIV and the Packers in XLV.
* Nine of the last ten games have been decided by 14 points or less, last night's game was the sixth in the last ten years that's finished with a margin of victory of less than ten points.
* Seven of the last ten games have featured more than 44.5 points.
* Jordy Nelson's TD reception was the first time since SBXXXIX that a 'normal' play had opened the scoring - the scoring in four of the five games since then had been opened by a field goal. Mason Crosby's Field Goal was the first FG to be the last scoring play since Adam Vinatieri's last minute kick in SBXXXVIII.
* The favourites have won 15 of the last 21 games.
* 11 of the last 21 MVPs have been quarterbacks. Eight of those 11 players were starting QBs for the favourite.
I'm going to wait and see if there's going to be a 2011 season before making any predictions - negotiations concerning the Collective Bargaining Agreement are ongoing.
Who Are Ya?
- Mike Roberts
- Bristol, South West, United Kingdom
- Citizen of the UK, where gambling is legal.
Monday, 7 February 2011
Sunday, 6 February 2011
Superbowl XLV Preview
A few weeks ago I recommended laying Green Bay for the Superbowl: so no matter how much I try to be unbiased in this preview, it's important to remember that my current position is opposing the favourite. The favourites are 14 of 20 in Superbowls since 1990 and six of ten since Superbowl XXXV.
Before we go any further, this game is going to be CLOSE. Fourteen of the last 20 Superbowls have been decided to 14 points or less, eight of the last 20 games have been decided by a converted TD or less and four games in the last decade have been decided by a FG or less. The last five regular season games between the Steelers and Packers have all been settled by 14 points or less. Did I mention close?
The other thing to remember is that although the game is at a neutral venue, it's best to treat it as an away game for both teams when attempting to compile odds. I normally use a sample size of 20, so here are those numbers:
Last 20 Road Games (including playoffs)
Green Bay 11-9, 2-2 v AFC
Pittsburgh 13-7, 3-2 v NFC (includes Superbowl win over Arizona)
So pretty close there...it's interesting to note that the Steelers haven't had a home playoff game for a while, so their last away playoff game was Superbowl XLIII.
Advantage: Steelers
Record in Superbowls
Steelers are 6-1 in Superbowls and have won a title in three of the last four decades - they've also won two of the last five world titles. The Packers are 3-1 and lost their last appearance was in 1997, so it's fair to say that the Steelers have been there more recently and have experience on their side.
Advantage: Steelers
Head To Head
The Packers lead the series 18-14, but the Steelers have won the last three of the five regular season meetings between the teams since 1990. Last Packers win was on Christmas Eve 1995.
Advantage: Steelers
Winner Profile (From 1990 NY Giants until 2009 New Orleans Saints)
This is what I referred to in this post back in November, which is a technique that I also use when carrying out pre-season football analysis. Thirteen different teams have won the last 20 Superbowls so there's plenty of material.
The Steelers have a slim advantage in this area. Winning the AFC North with a 12-4 record puts them in good company as teams with 12-4 records are 7-2 in the last 20 games. Having won an extra three games this season is also important - teams that have achieved that 'year on year' improvement are 2-1in Superbowls.
That's not to say that the Packers don't have anything going for them - their 2009 regular season record (11-5) puts them in the group of four teams that reached the Superbowl the season after they finished with 11 wins. There is a slight disadvantage for the Packers in this respect as those teams are 2-2: Green Bay have been consistent over the last couple of seasons but haven't been good enough to win the NFC North - divisional ruuners up are 2-5 over the last 20 Superbowls and that includes the losers of the last two games (Arizona and Indianapolis).
Having won three more games this season seems to indicate that the Steelers have shown an improvement while the Packers have 'merely' been consistent - and that could be crucial.
Loser Profile
This isn't good news for the Steelers. 19 of the last 20 runners up won their division the season they reached the Superbowl and lost, and as the AFC have more losses than wins in the last two decades it doesn't look so hot for Pittsburgh from that point of view.
General Statistics
You had to have scored more than 18 points to have won a Superbowl since 1990 - 19 of the last 20 winners managed that, the only team that didn't were the NY Giants in Superbowl XLII.
A typical score for the last 20 games would be 30-18 - which would fit within the 14 point handicap mentioned at the start of the article - but the mode score is 20-17, which fits the 14 point margin of victory and also allows for the 'winning field goal scenario'.
20-17 is also incredibly close to the results of Superbowls XXV (Giants 20, Bills 19 - last second FG missed) and Superbowl XXXVI (Patriots 20, Rams 17 - last second FG converted).
The first scoring play in 12 of the last 20 games has been a field goal - eight of those have been scored by the pre-game favourite. So a Packers FG to open the scoring wouldn't be a bad idea. The least likely play would be a Steeler rushing TD...but I don't want to get involved with that...
The last scoring play in 15 of the last 20 games has been a TD of some sort (eight pass receptions, three interceptions returned for scores, two rushing TDs, a kick off return and a fumble recovery) but eight of those scores were by the pre-game underdogs. Five were pass receptions, two were interceptions.
Quarterbacks have won half of the last 20 MVP awards; in games where the favourites won, the winning QB won the award.
VERDICT
Considering that the Packers are favourites, the margin of victory markets are remarkably similar. I'm also up against it as favourites have won 14 times since 1990, but I'm not going to try to trade out of my position as I still think the Steelers have a good chance of winning.
However, I'm not tied to this position so going on statistics, I'm recommending the following:
* Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) to win MVP
* First Scoring Play: Packers Field Goal
* Last Scoring Play: Steelers TD
* Over 44 points
Before we go any further, this game is going to be CLOSE. Fourteen of the last 20 Superbowls have been decided to 14 points or less, eight of the last 20 games have been decided by a converted TD or less and four games in the last decade have been decided by a FG or less. The last five regular season games between the Steelers and Packers have all been settled by 14 points or less. Did I mention close?
The other thing to remember is that although the game is at a neutral venue, it's best to treat it as an away game for both teams when attempting to compile odds. I normally use a sample size of 20, so here are those numbers:
Last 20 Road Games (including playoffs)
Green Bay 11-9, 2-2 v AFC
Pittsburgh 13-7, 3-2 v NFC (includes Superbowl win over Arizona)
So pretty close there...it's interesting to note that the Steelers haven't had a home playoff game for a while, so their last away playoff game was Superbowl XLIII.
Advantage: Steelers
Record in Superbowls
Steelers are 6-1 in Superbowls and have won a title in three of the last four decades - they've also won two of the last five world titles. The Packers are 3-1 and lost their last appearance was in 1997, so it's fair to say that the Steelers have been there more recently and have experience on their side.
Advantage: Steelers
Head To Head
The Packers lead the series 18-14, but the Steelers have won the last three of the five regular season meetings between the teams since 1990. Last Packers win was on Christmas Eve 1995.
Advantage: Steelers
Winner Profile (From 1990 NY Giants until 2009 New Orleans Saints)
This is what I referred to in this post back in November, which is a technique that I also use when carrying out pre-season football analysis. Thirteen different teams have won the last 20 Superbowls so there's plenty of material.
The Steelers have a slim advantage in this area. Winning the AFC North with a 12-4 record puts them in good company as teams with 12-4 records are 7-2 in the last 20 games. Having won an extra three games this season is also important - teams that have achieved that 'year on year' improvement are 2-1in Superbowls.
That's not to say that the Packers don't have anything going for them - their 2009 regular season record (11-5) puts them in the group of four teams that reached the Superbowl the season after they finished with 11 wins. There is a slight disadvantage for the Packers in this respect as those teams are 2-2: Green Bay have been consistent over the last couple of seasons but haven't been good enough to win the NFC North - divisional ruuners up are 2-5 over the last 20 Superbowls and that includes the losers of the last two games (Arizona and Indianapolis).
Having won three more games this season seems to indicate that the Steelers have shown an improvement while the Packers have 'merely' been consistent - and that could be crucial.
Loser Profile
This isn't good news for the Steelers. 19 of the last 20 runners up won their division the season they reached the Superbowl and lost, and as the AFC have more losses than wins in the last two decades it doesn't look so hot for Pittsburgh from that point of view.
General Statistics
You had to have scored more than 18 points to have won a Superbowl since 1990 - 19 of the last 20 winners managed that, the only team that didn't were the NY Giants in Superbowl XLII.
A typical score for the last 20 games would be 30-18 - which would fit within the 14 point handicap mentioned at the start of the article - but the mode score is 20-17, which fits the 14 point margin of victory and also allows for the 'winning field goal scenario'.
20-17 is also incredibly close to the results of Superbowls XXV (Giants 20, Bills 19 - last second FG missed) and Superbowl XXXVI (Patriots 20, Rams 17 - last second FG converted).
The first scoring play in 12 of the last 20 games has been a field goal - eight of those have been scored by the pre-game favourite. So a Packers FG to open the scoring wouldn't be a bad idea. The least likely play would be a Steeler rushing TD...but I don't want to get involved with that...
The last scoring play in 15 of the last 20 games has been a TD of some sort (eight pass receptions, three interceptions returned for scores, two rushing TDs, a kick off return and a fumble recovery) but eight of those scores were by the pre-game underdogs. Five were pass receptions, two were interceptions.
Quarterbacks have won half of the last 20 MVP awards; in games where the favourites won, the winning QB won the award.
VERDICT
Considering that the Packers are favourites, the margin of victory markets are remarkably similar. I'm also up against it as favourites have won 14 times since 1990, but I'm not going to try to trade out of my position as I still think the Steelers have a good chance of winning.
However, I'm not tied to this position so going on statistics, I'm recommending the following:
* Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) to win MVP
* First Scoring Play: Packers Field Goal
* Last Scoring Play: Steelers TD
* Over 44 points
Friday, 4 February 2011
Weekend Tips For Belgium & Greece
Saturday
Greece
5:30pm
AEK v Aris
Under 2.5 goals - it's a Greek game after all - and back AEK, who have won 10 of the last 11 home games against Aris.
Belgium
7:00pm
ANDERLECHT v St. Truiden
Anderlecht are too short to back, so it may be worth looking at the hosts keeping a clean sheet - the hosts have kept eight clean sheets in 11 home games, including last three straight. STVV have scored in nine of the last 15 meetings at Anderlecht, but are only averaging half a goal per away game this season.
Cercle Brugge v Mechelen
Both teams to score - Mechelen have only failed to score twice in the last eight meetings and Cercle are conceding exactly one goal per home games. I've got to admit that I'm not totally convinced about backing Cercle to win though.
Watching Brief
Charleroi v Zulte
Possible 0-0 here - they've been involved in six goalless draws this season, which is the same number as the Beerschot v Lokeren game (see below). I was originally going to recommend opposing Charleroi, but Zulte's record at Charleroi isn't great (one win in the last five visits) and so checking the score out when the game's finished may be the best option
Sunday
Greece
1:00pm
KAVALA v Kerkyra
Not much head to head form to go on, so once again opposing Kerkyra is probably the way forward.
Ergotelis v Panionios
This is a quandary - Ergotelis kept coming up in my number crunching, but there's no real reason why they're better than Panionios, they're just vaguely 'better' at home than Panionios are away, which could apply to about 90% of games across Europe this weekend...opposing Panionios may be the best move.
Belgium
5:00pm
Beerschot v Lokeren
Under 2.5 goals. Three of the last five meetings have been under and despite their lowly position in the table, only Anderlecht have conceded fewer goals than Beerschot this season.
Greece
5:30pm
AEK v Aris
Under 2.5 goals - it's a Greek game after all - and back AEK, who have won 10 of the last 11 home games against Aris.
Belgium
7:00pm
ANDERLECHT v St. Truiden
Anderlecht are too short to back, so it may be worth looking at the hosts keeping a clean sheet - the hosts have kept eight clean sheets in 11 home games, including last three straight. STVV have scored in nine of the last 15 meetings at Anderlecht, but are only averaging half a goal per away game this season.
Cercle Brugge v Mechelen
Both teams to score - Mechelen have only failed to score twice in the last eight meetings and Cercle are conceding exactly one goal per home games. I've got to admit that I'm not totally convinced about backing Cercle to win though.
Watching Brief
Charleroi v Zulte
Possible 0-0 here - they've been involved in six goalless draws this season, which is the same number as the Beerschot v Lokeren game (see below). I was originally going to recommend opposing Charleroi, but Zulte's record at Charleroi isn't great (one win in the last five visits) and so checking the score out when the game's finished may be the best option
Sunday
Greece
1:00pm
KAVALA v Kerkyra
Not much head to head form to go on, so once again opposing Kerkyra is probably the way forward.
Ergotelis v Panionios
This is a quandary - Ergotelis kept coming up in my number crunching, but there's no real reason why they're better than Panionios, they're just vaguely 'better' at home than Panionios are away, which could apply to about 90% of games across Europe this weekend...opposing Panionios may be the best move.
Belgium
5:00pm
Beerschot v Lokeren
Under 2.5 goals. Three of the last five meetings have been under and despite their lowly position in the table, only Anderlecht have conceded fewer goals than Beerschot this season.
Wednesday, 2 February 2011
If It's Wednesday, It Must Be Belgium...
Four catch up games tonight in the Jupiler Pro League, one is worth a look:
Mechelen v Kortrijk
Under 2.5 goals
As Anderlecht - and my wallet - found out on Sunday night, Mechelen are a tough team to break down at home. They've only conceded six goals in eleven home games this season and this is a traditionally low scoring game - four of the last six league games have finished in draws, the last two finished 1-1 and a similar scoreline tonight wouldn't be a big surprise. Kortrijk are also have trouble scoring away from home.
As for the others, Zulte-Waregem might have problems at Eupen and although Genk should beat St. Truiden, Genk's price is so low that it might even be worth laying them before the kick off and letting the price drift in play - there may not be many goals in the game, so you'd have to be patient.
Mechelen v Kortrijk
Under 2.5 goals
As Anderlecht - and my wallet - found out on Sunday night, Mechelen are a tough team to break down at home. They've only conceded six goals in eleven home games this season and this is a traditionally low scoring game - four of the last six league games have finished in draws, the last two finished 1-1 and a similar scoreline tonight wouldn't be a big surprise. Kortrijk are also have trouble scoring away from home.
As for the others, Zulte-Waregem might have problems at Eupen and although Genk should beat St. Truiden, Genk's price is so low that it might even be worth laying them before the kick off and letting the price drift in play - there may not be many goals in the game, so you'd have to be patient.
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