Superbowl XLV Preview

A few weeks ago I recommended laying Green Bay for the Superbowl: so no matter how much I try to be unbiased in this preview, it's important to remember that my current position is opposing the favourite. The favourites are 14 of 20 in Superbowls since 1990 and six of ten since Superbowl XXXV.


Before we go any further, this game is going to be CLOSE. Fourteen of the last 20 Superbowls have been decided to 14 points or less, eight of the last 20 games have been decided by a converted TD or less and four games in the last decade have been decided by a FG or less. The last five regular season games between the Steelers and Packers have all been settled by 14 points or less. Did I mention close?


The other thing to remember is that although the game is at a neutral venue, it's best to treat it as an away game for both teams when attempting to compile odds. I normally use a sample size of 20, so here are those numbers:


Last 20 Road Games (including playoffs)


Green Bay 11-9, 2-2 v AFC
Pittsburgh 13-7, 3-2 v NFC (includes Superbowl win over Arizona)


So pretty close there...it's interesting to note that the Steelers haven't had a home playoff game for a while, so their last away playoff game was Superbowl XLIII.
Advantage: Steelers


Record in Superbowls
Steelers are 6-1 in Superbowls and have won a title in three of the last four decades - they've also won two of the last five world titles. The Packers are 3-1 and lost their last appearance was in 1997, so it's fair to say that the Steelers have been there more recently and have experience on their side.
Advantage: Steelers


Head To Head
The Packers lead the series 18-14, but the Steelers have won the last three of the five regular season meetings between the teams since 1990. Last Packers win was on Christmas Eve 1995.
Advantage: Steelers


Winner Profile (From 1990 NY Giants until 2009 New Orleans Saints)
This is what I referred to in this post back in November, which is a technique that I also use when carrying out pre-season football analysis. Thirteen different teams have won the last 20 Superbowls so there's plenty of material.


The Steelers have a slim advantage in this area. Winning the AFC North with a 12-4 record puts them in good company as teams with 12-4 records are 7-2 in the last 20 games. Having won an extra three games this season is also important - teams that have achieved that 'year on year' improvement are 2-1in Superbowls.


That's not to say that the Packers don't have anything going for them - their 2009 regular season record (11-5) puts them in the group of four teams that reached the Superbowl the season after they finished with 11 wins. There is a slight disadvantage for the Packers in this respect as those teams are 2-2: Green Bay have been consistent over the last couple of seasons but haven't been good enough to win the NFC North - divisional ruuners up are 2-5 over the last 20 Superbowls and that includes the losers of the last two games (Arizona and Indianapolis).


Having won three more games this season seems to indicate that the Steelers have shown an improvement while the Packers have 'merely' been consistent - and that could be crucial.


Loser Profile
This isn't good news for the Steelers. 19 of the last 20 runners up won their division the season they reached the Superbowl and lost, and as the AFC have more losses than wins in the last two decades it doesn't look so hot for Pittsburgh from that point of view.


General Statistics
You had to have scored more than 18 points to have won a Superbowl since 1990 - 19 of the last 20 winners managed that, the only team that didn't were the NY Giants in Superbowl XLII.


A typical score for the last 20 games would be 30-18 - which would fit within the 14 point handicap mentioned at the start of the article - but the mode score is 20-17, which fits the 14 point margin of victory and also allows for the 'winning field goal scenario'.


20-17 is also incredibly close to the results of Superbowls XXV (Giants 20, Bills 19 - last second FG missed) and Superbowl XXXVI (Patriots 20, Rams 17 - last second FG converted).


The first scoring play in 12 of the last 20 games has been a field goal - eight of those have been scored by the pre-game favourite. So a Packers FG to open the scoring wouldn't be a bad idea. The least likely play would be a Steeler rushing TD...but I don't want to get involved with that...


The last scoring play in 15 of the last 20 games has been a TD of some sort (eight pass receptions, three interceptions returned for scores, two rushing TDs, a kick off return and a fumble recovery) but eight of those scores were by the pre-game underdogs. Five were pass receptions, two were interceptions.

Quarterbacks have won half of the last 20 MVP awards; in games where the favourites won, the winning QB won the award.


VERDICT
Considering that the Packers are favourites, the margin of victory markets are remarkably similar. I'm also up against it as favourites have won 14 times since 1990, but I'm not going to try to trade out of my position as I still think the Steelers have a good chance of winning.

However, I'm not tied to this position so going on statistics, I'm recommending the following:

* Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) to win MVP
* First Scoring Play: Packers Field Goal
* Last Scoring Play: Steelers TD
* Over 44 points