No two ways about it, last weekend was disappointing, largely due to a few significant streaks being broken:
* In Croatia, despite having not won at home all season, Hrvatski Dragovoljac have now won two away games.
* In Portugal, Portimonense won their first away game this season and Academica de Coimbra picked up their first away win since the end of November. I've now made incorrect calls on Academica's last two games.
* In Greece, all credit to Kavala for beating PAOK and Panionios for nicking a point from Olympiakos.
Still, there's a busy week coming up and there's no use crying over split milk.
Monday
Portugal
8:15pm
Naval v Sporting Braga
Naval's only home win came a couple of weeks ago against my current bete noire (Academica) but although there's not much to go on, I'd be very surprised if Naval kept a clean sheet: it's been six home games since they kept one and as Sporting Braga have scored in 70% of their away games this season that looks like the way to go. Naval not to keep a clean sheet.
Who Are Ya?
- Mike Roberts
- Bristol, South West, United Kingdom
- Citizen of the UK, where gambling is legal.
Monday, 28 February 2011
Tuesday, 22 February 2011
Weekend Tips
Only catch up games in Belgium this week and we welcome back Croatia and Hungary from their winter breaks, although there's only one game worth looking at in Croatia. I looked at all of them and either Hajduk Split or Dinamo Zagreb are too short to be worth bothering with or there are no clear trends: sometimes that's the way it is.
As usual, teams in bold are possible wins, teams in BOLD CAPS are possible home bankers.
Friday
Hungary
6:00pm
FERENCVAROS v Kecskemeti
One of the weird aspects of this game is how unlikely a draw might be - Ferencvaros didn't draw at home during the first phase (12 since last home draw), Kecskemeti didn't draw away (18 since last away draw). The hosts are on a four game home winning streak in the league so we'll go with them; they need a morale boost at the moment due to experiencing financial difficulties again and I can tell you from personal experience that when the Florian Albert Stadium is full, it's an incredibly intimidating place for the opposition.
8:15pm
Portugal
Vitoria Guimaraes v Academica
Academica are currently on a three game losing streak on the road while Vitoria are one of the more improved home teams this season. If the visitors lose it again like they did last Saturday then laying them could pay out. Trying to be professional here but Academica really annoyed me last weekend and I hope they lose ;-)
Saturday
Hungary
3pm
ZALAEGERSZEGI v Szombathely
The current top three won all six games against the current bottom three in the opening stage and although the current price may not look like it, it represents value.
Greece
3:15pm
Iraklis v Xanthi
This game should have less than 2.5 goals in it but the price is too low and in actual fact laying Xanthi is a better idea as Iraklis have only lost three times in the last 20 home games in the league. Last year was the first time Xanthi had won at Iraklis for over 15 years.
Croatia
4:00pm
Istra v Hrvatski
Hrvatski are on their way back to 2.HNL but Istra can still save themselves from relegation, even though the bottom four are going down this season. Oppose Hrvatski as a starting point as I'm not 100% sure that Istra have the goals to win this.
Portugal
4:00pm
Pacos de Ferreira v Vitoria Setubal
Straight Dutch (Pacos win/draw), although the draw might stand a better chance of paying out. Vitoria unlikely to keep a clean sheet and a scoring less than one goal away from home this season.
Portugal
8:15pm
Olhanense v Porto
Under 3.5 goals - arguably the most interesting game in Portugal this weekend as unbeaten Olhanense (unbeaten at home this season) entertain the runaway leaders. One of the reasons the hosts may be unbeaten is that this is only the second home game they've played against the big three (2-2 draw with Sporting Lisbon last time out) and although Olhanense's defence will be tested by Porto, this still looks like a low scoring game
Sunday
Greece
3:15pm
PAOK* v Kavala
Going back to 1994, PAOK have won all six games without scoring a goal; a home win is still possible, but I'd be a bit hesitant about backing a PAOK clean sheet as they've only kept two at home this season; Kavala have scored in eight of their eleven away games this season.
*Not a home banker, these are just the initials.
Hungary
3:30pm
Vasas Budapest v Fehervar
Over 2.5 goals - always worth remembering that NB1 is a very goal friendly league, despite it being the lowest ranked league I'm familiar with. Yes, lower than the Veikkausliiga.
Portugal
6:00pm
BEIRA MAR v Portimonense
Lay Portimonense - haven't won away all season, haven't won at Beira Mar in the last four visits. Be cautious if backing the hosts though as Portimonense are making everyone look better because they're so bad.
Greece
7:00pm
Panionios v Olympiakos
Originally came up as a low goals recommendation, but this is about as nailed on as an away win can get, especially as Olympiakos tend to take their shooting boots to what's basically a home game for them.
As usual, teams in bold are possible wins, teams in BOLD CAPS are possible home bankers.
Friday
Hungary
6:00pm
FERENCVAROS v Kecskemeti
One of the weird aspects of this game is how unlikely a draw might be - Ferencvaros didn't draw at home during the first phase (12 since last home draw), Kecskemeti didn't draw away (18 since last away draw). The hosts are on a four game home winning streak in the league so we'll go with them; they need a morale boost at the moment due to experiencing financial difficulties again and I can tell you from personal experience that when the Florian Albert Stadium is full, it's an incredibly intimidating place for the opposition.
8:15pm
Portugal
Vitoria Guimaraes v Academica
Academica are currently on a three game losing streak on the road while Vitoria are one of the more improved home teams this season. If the visitors lose it again like they did last Saturday then laying them could pay out. Trying to be professional here but Academica really annoyed me last weekend and I hope they lose ;-)
Saturday
Hungary
3pm
ZALAEGERSZEGI v Szombathely
The current top three won all six games against the current bottom three in the opening stage and although the current price may not look like it, it represents value.
Greece
3:15pm
Iraklis v Xanthi
This game should have less than 2.5 goals in it but the price is too low and in actual fact laying Xanthi is a better idea as Iraklis have only lost three times in the last 20 home games in the league. Last year was the first time Xanthi had won at Iraklis for over 15 years.
Croatia
4:00pm
Istra v Hrvatski
Hrvatski are on their way back to 2.HNL but Istra can still save themselves from relegation, even though the bottom four are going down this season. Oppose Hrvatski as a starting point as I'm not 100% sure that Istra have the goals to win this.
Portugal
4:00pm
Pacos de Ferreira v Vitoria Setubal
Straight Dutch (Pacos win/draw), although the draw might stand a better chance of paying out. Vitoria unlikely to keep a clean sheet and a scoring less than one goal away from home this season.
Portugal
8:15pm
Olhanense v Porto
Under 3.5 goals - arguably the most interesting game in Portugal this weekend as unbeaten Olhanense (unbeaten at home this season) entertain the runaway leaders. One of the reasons the hosts may be unbeaten is that this is only the second home game they've played against the big three (2-2 draw with Sporting Lisbon last time out) and although Olhanense's defence will be tested by Porto, this still looks like a low scoring game
Sunday
Greece
3:15pm
PAOK* v Kavala
Going back to 1994, PAOK have won all six games without scoring a goal; a home win is still possible, but I'd be a bit hesitant about backing a PAOK clean sheet as they've only kept two at home this season; Kavala have scored in eight of their eleven away games this season.
*Not a home banker, these are just the initials.
Hungary
3:30pm
Vasas Budapest v Fehervar
Over 2.5 goals - always worth remembering that NB1 is a very goal friendly league, despite it being the lowest ranked league I'm familiar with. Yes, lower than the Veikkausliiga.
Portugal
6:00pm
BEIRA MAR v Portimonense
Lay Portimonense - haven't won away all season, haven't won at Beira Mar in the last four visits. Be cautious if backing the hosts though as Portimonense are making everyone look better because they're so bad.
Greece
7:00pm
Panionios v Olympiakos
Originally came up as a low goals recommendation, but this is about as nailed on as an away win can get, especially as Olympiakos tend to take their shooting boots to what's basically a home game for them.
Midweek nPower Championship
Right, back to work after Sunday evening's ridiculous events. I've had to cancel something I was supposed to be doing today, so I can take a more in depth look at tonight's Championship games.
First of all, ignore the following markets:
Nottingham Forest, Norwich and Watford win markets. Forest's price is value but is still lower than 1.5 so it's automatically discounted and Watford's price seems to be aimed specifically at casual punters and/or Hornets fans.
Here are the ones I'm looking at:
Coventry v Swansea -
Under 3.5 goals, although it may be worth having a nibble at both teams to score - only one league game at the Ricoh this season has been over 3.5 goals (2-3 v Leeds in November) whereas Swansea have been involved in five. Last three head to head games at Coventry have been under 3.5
Nottingham Forest v Preston North End
Under 3.5 goals - unlikely Forest's unbeaten home record will go tonight, but I'm leaving them alone until it does.
Portsmouth v Crystal Palace
I was going to look at the over/under numbers to start with with but I think there could be a few goals at Fratton Park tonight - eight of the last ten league meetings there have been over 3.5. Laying Palace to keep a clean sheet and the game generally seems to be the way forward.
Reading v Millwall
Under 3.5 goals, laying 0-0/no goalscorer isn't a bad idea either.
Scunthorpe v Sheffield United
Under 3.5 goals. Games between the current bottom six have been marginally under 2.5 goals but these two have some specific form patterns in that context. Sheffield United have been particularly poor away from home against the other teams in the current bottom six, having lost the three games they've played so far without scoring; two of those games finished 1-0.
Scunthorpe's home record is nothing to write home about either, but two of the three games they've played against bottom six sides at Glanford Park have been under.
A warning comes with this one: three of the last five games between these two at Scunthorpe have been over 2.5 so making the conservative decision to back under 3.5 comes into play.
Totally unscientific, but I'm going to back a 2-1 Leeds win over Barnsley aswell.
First of all, ignore the following markets:
Nottingham Forest, Norwich and Watford win markets. Forest's price is value but is still lower than 1.5 so it's automatically discounted and Watford's price seems to be aimed specifically at casual punters and/or Hornets fans.
Here are the ones I'm looking at:
Coventry v Swansea -
Under 3.5 goals, although it may be worth having a nibble at both teams to score - only one league game at the Ricoh this season has been over 3.5 goals (2-3 v Leeds in November) whereas Swansea have been involved in five. Last three head to head games at Coventry have been under 3.5
Nottingham Forest v Preston North End
Under 3.5 goals - unlikely Forest's unbeaten home record will go tonight, but I'm leaving them alone until it does.
Portsmouth v Crystal Palace
I was going to look at the over/under numbers to start with with but I think there could be a few goals at Fratton Park tonight - eight of the last ten league meetings there have been over 3.5. Laying Palace to keep a clean sheet and the game generally seems to be the way forward.
Reading v Millwall
Under 3.5 goals, laying 0-0/no goalscorer isn't a bad idea either.
Scunthorpe v Sheffield United
Under 3.5 goals. Games between the current bottom six have been marginally under 2.5 goals but these two have some specific form patterns in that context. Sheffield United have been particularly poor away from home against the other teams in the current bottom six, having lost the three games they've played so far without scoring; two of those games finished 1-0.
Scunthorpe's home record is nothing to write home about either, but two of the three games they've played against bottom six sides at Glanford Park have been under.
A warning comes with this one: three of the last five games between these two at Scunthorpe have been over 2.5 so making the conservative decision to back under 3.5 comes into play.
Totally unscientific, but I'm going to back a 2-1 Leeds win over Barnsley aswell.
Sunday, 20 February 2011
Bang Bang Bang
That's the sound of my head bouncing off the wall - what a night.
Academica 0, Rio Ave 1
Two Academica players sent off plus a winning penalty - all of which happened in injury time.
AEK 1, Panionios 1
Konstantinos Mitroglou equalised for Panionios with about a minute left. AEK are now officially on my Avoid list.
Sporting Braga 1, Pacos de Ferreira 2
PdF took a two goal lead after 20 minutes, Braga got one back and couldn't force an equaliser after PdF had a man sent off with about a quarter of an hour left.
I'll tell you what, if someone had said 'write a worst case scenario' this morning it would have looked a lot like that.
Academica 0, Rio Ave 1
Two Academica players sent off plus a winning penalty - all of which happened in injury time.
AEK 1, Panionios 1
Konstantinos Mitroglou equalised for Panionios with about a minute left. AEK are now officially on my Avoid list.
Sporting Braga 1, Pacos de Ferreira 2
PdF took a two goal lead after 20 minutes, Braga got one back and couldn't force an equaliser after PdF had a man sent off with about a quarter of an hour left.
I'll tell you what, if someone had said 'write a worst case scenario' this morning it would have looked a lot like that.
Sunday's Free Tips
Sunday
Portugal
4:00pm
Academica v Rio Ave
Oppose Rio Ave - they're having problems scoring away from home this season and although Academica aren't exactly the best team in Portugal in 2010/11 they probably won't lose this game. Backing the draw might pay out.
Belgium
5:00pm - Watching Brief Only
GENT v Standard Liege
Careful here - barring any slip ups Gent should qualify for the Champions League qualification group, but Standard have to start making the most of their remaining opportunities to avoid finishing in the Europa League group. They're currently one point behind Mechelen, who lost to Genk on Saturday night and they need to avoid defeat in this game. Gent draw no bet might be the best play.
Greece
5:30pm
AEK v Panionios
Looks pretty nailed on to me, but there's no such thing as a dead cert. I think it's probably worth backing AEK without worrying about the draw.
Xanthi v Larissa
Xanthi have gone backwards, but they've not fallen away as badly as Larissa. Laying Larissa is the play.
Portugal
8:15pm
Sporting Braga v Pacos de Ferreira
It was probably too much to expect that Braga would be able to maintain last season's form when faced with the distraction of the Champions League. They've only lost twice at the AXA Stadium this season: to Porto (no surprise) and to newly promoted Beira Mar (surprise). Pacos haven't done too badly away from home this season but have only won one of their last nine visits to Braga: Braga win.
I won't be paying attention to the big game in Portugal on Monday night, but I might have a nibble at Benfica.
Portugal
4:00pm
Academica v Rio Ave
Oppose Rio Ave - they're having problems scoring away from home this season and although Academica aren't exactly the best team in Portugal in 2010/11 they probably won't lose this game. Backing the draw might pay out.
Belgium
5:00pm - Watching Brief Only
GENT v Standard Liege
Careful here - barring any slip ups Gent should qualify for the Champions League qualification group, but Standard have to start making the most of their remaining opportunities to avoid finishing in the Europa League group. They're currently one point behind Mechelen, who lost to Genk on Saturday night and they need to avoid defeat in this game. Gent draw no bet might be the best play.
Greece
5:30pm
AEK v Panionios
Looks pretty nailed on to me, but there's no such thing as a dead cert. I think it's probably worth backing AEK without worrying about the draw.
Xanthi v Larissa
Xanthi have gone backwards, but they've not fallen away as badly as Larissa. Laying Larissa is the play.
Portugal
8:15pm
Sporting Braga v Pacos de Ferreira
It was probably too much to expect that Braga would be able to maintain last season's form when faced with the distraction of the Champions League. They've only lost twice at the AXA Stadium this season: to Porto (no surprise) and to newly promoted Beira Mar (surprise). Pacos haven't done too badly away from home this season but have only won one of their last nine visits to Braga: Braga win.
I won't be paying attention to the big game in Portugal on Monday night, but I might have a nibble at Benfica.
Saturday, 19 February 2011
Tips Will Be Up On Sunday
Apologies, tomorrow's tips will be up bright and early on Sunday morning - nice work today (even if I say so myself), all three of yesterday's games were settled by goals in the last ten minutes or in injury time...the Olympiakos/Panathinaikos game sounded very dramatic.
Friday, 18 February 2011
Free Tips For Saturday's Games
Belgium comes with a warning this week: the Jupiler League is now four games away from the end of the first phase and although the top three are more or less assured of getting into the Champions League playoff group, there's a bit of a logjam after that, so wherever possible I'll point that out in the individual games.
Usual format applies: probable home wins in bold, possible home banker in bold caps.
Saturday
Greece
5:30pm
Olympiakos v Panathinaikos
I was actually quite surprised by this when I broke this game down - Panathinaikos have only won twice in the last 15 league meetings at the Karaiskakis Stadium. Don't be too taken in by the price though as there's a decent chance of this ending in a draw: laying Panathinaikos might work out nicely.
7:00pm
Club Brugge v Lokeren
Here we go...this could be trouble. On the face of it, Club should win this easily but Lokeren are only two points behind them and are also competing for a Champions League group play off place. The visitors also have Standard Liege and Cercle Brugge in the rear view mirror and it's also worth chucking in the fact that they've drawn the most away games in the Jupiler League this season. Opposing Lokeren could be the way forward.
ZULTE WAREGEM v Lierse
Despite having gone seriously backwards this season, ZW should be fine for the Europa League playoff group, but Lierse need a win to avoid automatic relegation and actually have a decent record at Zulte. The hosts don't need a win as much as the visitors do, but six consecutive away defeats indicate how bad Lierse are - oppose them at the very least.
Sunday's tips will be posted on Saturday morning.
Usual format applies: probable home wins in bold, possible home banker in bold caps.
Saturday
Greece
5:30pm
Olympiakos v Panathinaikos
I was actually quite surprised by this when I broke this game down - Panathinaikos have only won twice in the last 15 league meetings at the Karaiskakis Stadium. Don't be too taken in by the price though as there's a decent chance of this ending in a draw: laying Panathinaikos might work out nicely.
7:00pm
Club Brugge v Lokeren
Here we go...this could be trouble. On the face of it, Club should win this easily but Lokeren are only two points behind them and are also competing for a Champions League group play off place. The visitors also have Standard Liege and Cercle Brugge in the rear view mirror and it's also worth chucking in the fact that they've drawn the most away games in the Jupiler League this season. Opposing Lokeren could be the way forward.
ZULTE WAREGEM v Lierse
Despite having gone seriously backwards this season, ZW should be fine for the Europa League playoff group, but Lierse need a win to avoid automatic relegation and actually have a decent record at Zulte. The hosts don't need a win as much as the visitors do, but six consecutive away defeats indicate how bad Lierse are - oppose them at the very least.
Sunday's tips will be posted on Saturday morning.
Monday, 14 February 2011
Free Tips For Monday and Tuesday
Superb weekend, despite PAOK starting it off by losing to Panionios. Everything else came in, the only other wobble was expecting Standard Liege to beat Genk - although to be fair, I'd suggested laying 0-0, which worked.
I'm ignoring the Champions League this week because there are a few catch up games in England that might be worth a look, so this is the only scheduled post before Friday's weekend preview.
Monday
Portugal
8:15pm
Beira Mar v Vitoria Setubal
Beira Mar's two home defeats this season have been against Benfica and Porto, otherwise they're fairly solid at home. Vitoria's away form has improved recently, but they're probably still worth opposing.
Tuesday
I tend not to analyse British games in much detail as I used to, but as usual the basic idea is that the home wins are in bold, home bankers are in bold caps etc. All kick offs at 7:45pm.
Championship
CARDIFF v Burnley
Watford v Preston - opposing Preston could be the best play as Watford have already lost at home to Scunthorpe this season and it's the time of the season when teams at the bottom of the table have to start scrapping their away out of the relegation spots.
League 1
Exeter v Swindon
Exeter haven't lost at home against teams in the current bottom four, so this recommendation is probably more about opposing Swindon rather than backing Exeter.
OLDHAM v Carlisle
Carlisle have lost all their games played against the current top six without scoring a goal. Nice price for Oldham.
League 2
Stevenage v Oxford
The visitors are unlikely to win, but you cannot completely rule out a draw either.
ROTHERHAM v Accrington Stanley
Very similar type of game to Oldham v Carlisle - Accrington Stanley have lost against all the sides they've played in the current top six.
I'm ignoring the Champions League this week because there are a few catch up games in England that might be worth a look, so this is the only scheduled post before Friday's weekend preview.
Monday
Portugal
8:15pm
Beira Mar v Vitoria Setubal
Beira Mar's two home defeats this season have been against Benfica and Porto, otherwise they're fairly solid at home. Vitoria's away form has improved recently, but they're probably still worth opposing.
Tuesday
I tend not to analyse British games in much detail as I used to, but as usual the basic idea is that the home wins are in bold, home bankers are in bold caps etc. All kick offs at 7:45pm.
Championship
CARDIFF v Burnley
Watford v Preston - opposing Preston could be the best play as Watford have already lost at home to Scunthorpe this season and it's the time of the season when teams at the bottom of the table have to start scrapping their away out of the relegation spots.
League 1
Exeter v Swindon
Exeter haven't lost at home against teams in the current bottom four, so this recommendation is probably more about opposing Swindon rather than backing Exeter.
OLDHAM v Carlisle
Carlisle have lost all their games played against the current top six without scoring a goal. Nice price for Oldham.
League 2
Stevenage v Oxford
The visitors are unlikely to win, but you cannot completely rule out a draw either.
ROTHERHAM v Accrington Stanley
Very similar type of game to Oldham v Carlisle - Accrington Stanley have lost against all the sides they've played in the current top six.
Thursday, 10 February 2011
Weekend Tips For Belgium, Greece & Portugal
I've somehow managed to overlook Portugal over the last couple of weeks, so I've put that right this week. Looks like an action packed Sunday - except in Greece, where the goal drought looks like continuing. I've not looked at the following games, but don't expect more than 2.5 goals between Aris and Olympiakos and Xanthi v Atromitos
Saturday
Greece
3:15pm
Panionios v PAOK
I was going to recommend under 2.5 goals originally, but if the price drops below 1.5 (1/2) then it's not worth taking. The alternative is to oppose Panionios - they've only won one of the last five games between these two at the Neas Smirnis Stadium and none of the bottom three clubs have beaten the top three at home this season.
Portugal
6:15pm
Nacional v Uniao de Leiria
Unclear what the result might be (I suspect a Nacional win), but there should be under 2.5 goals here.
Belgium
7:00pm
LOKEREN v Charleroi
Lay 0-0. Lokeren's home games are producing an average of nearly three goals per game and Charleroi haven't kept a clean sheet all season. The hosts should win but are far too short to back.
Sunday
Greece
1:00pm
Kerkyra v Panserraikos
The visitors are conceding an average of two goals a game away from home and as Kerkyra have won four of the last five league games between these two on Corfu then they're worth backing.
Iraklis v Asteras
Similar to the Panionios/PAOK game on Saturday - can't see many goals so there's no point in following the 2.5 market, so it could be worth opposing Asteras as well. The visitors have lost two of the last three league games at the Kafantzoglio and Iraklis haven't lost at home in the league since September. It's also worth having a nibble on Iraklis keeping a clean sheet.
3:00pm
Portugal
Rio Ave v Portimonense
Oppose Portimonense. The fact that they haven't won away all season is trappy, but that doesn't mean they'll do it here despite Rio Ave having only won two games at home this season. The hosts were unlucky to lose to Vitoria Guimaraes in their last home game.
5:00pm
Belgium
Standard Liege v Genk
Originally thought both teams would score, but this looks more like laying 0-0 than anything else. Although Genk's away defence is as good as Anderlecht's, Standard's home games have produced nearly 3.5 goals. If you don't fancy that, a Standard win or opposing Genk could be worth a small punt: Standard have won seven of the last nine league meetings between these two in Liege.
5:30pm
Greece
PANATHINAIKOS v AEK
Panathinaikos should win this easily - as the designated 'away' team at the Olympic Stadium this weekend AEK have only beaten Panathinaikos in the last 15 league meetings, although last three have been draws. Panathinaikos are great value for a change but that's probably more to do with the venue than anything else; I've also got an axe to grind with AEK this week, after they were turned over by Aris last weekend.
Saturday
Greece
3:15pm
Panionios v PAOK
I was going to recommend under 2.5 goals originally, but if the price drops below 1.5 (1/2) then it's not worth taking. The alternative is to oppose Panionios - they've only won one of the last five games between these two at the Neas Smirnis Stadium and none of the bottom three clubs have beaten the top three at home this season.
Portugal
6:15pm
Nacional v Uniao de Leiria
Unclear what the result might be (I suspect a Nacional win), but there should be under 2.5 goals here.
Belgium
7:00pm
LOKEREN v Charleroi
Lay 0-0. Lokeren's home games are producing an average of nearly three goals per game and Charleroi haven't kept a clean sheet all season. The hosts should win but are far too short to back.
Sunday
Greece
1:00pm
Kerkyra v Panserraikos
The visitors are conceding an average of two goals a game away from home and as Kerkyra have won four of the last five league games between these two on Corfu then they're worth backing.
Iraklis v Asteras
Similar to the Panionios/PAOK game on Saturday - can't see many goals so there's no point in following the 2.5 market, so it could be worth opposing Asteras as well. The visitors have lost two of the last three league games at the Kafantzoglio and Iraklis haven't lost at home in the league since September. It's also worth having a nibble on Iraklis keeping a clean sheet.
3:00pm
Portugal
Rio Ave v Portimonense
Oppose Portimonense. The fact that they haven't won away all season is trappy, but that doesn't mean they'll do it here despite Rio Ave having only won two games at home this season. The hosts were unlucky to lose to Vitoria Guimaraes in their last home game.
5:00pm
Belgium
Standard Liege v Genk
Originally thought both teams would score, but this looks more like laying 0-0 than anything else. Although Genk's away defence is as good as Anderlecht's, Standard's home games have produced nearly 3.5 goals. If you don't fancy that, a Standard win or opposing Genk could be worth a small punt: Standard have won seven of the last nine league meetings between these two in Liege.
5:30pm
Greece
PANATHINAIKOS v AEK
Panathinaikos should win this easily - as the designated 'away' team at the Olympic Stadium this weekend AEK have only beaten Panathinaikos in the last 15 league meetings, although last three have been draws. Panathinaikos are great value for a change but that's probably more to do with the venue than anything else; I've also got an axe to grind with AEK this week, after they were turned over by Aris last weekend.
Monday, 7 February 2011
Congratulations To The Packers
Another thrilling game, I got the MVP and the points right (for a change!), Green Bay scored first and last so it might be worth revisiting those concepts next season - if there is a next season.
It's interesting to note the following about Superbowls since the 1990 season:
* Winning teams have scored 31 points in three games since 1990 - Denver in SBXXXII, New Orleans in XLIV and the Packers in XLV.
* Nine of the last ten games have been decided by 14 points or less, last night's game was the sixth in the last ten years that's finished with a margin of victory of less than ten points.
* Seven of the last ten games have featured more than 44.5 points.
* Jordy Nelson's TD reception was the first time since SBXXXIX that a 'normal' play had opened the scoring - the scoring in four of the five games since then had been opened by a field goal. Mason Crosby's Field Goal was the first FG to be the last scoring play since Adam Vinatieri's last minute kick in SBXXXVIII.
* The favourites have won 15 of the last 21 games.
* 11 of the last 21 MVPs have been quarterbacks. Eight of those 11 players were starting QBs for the favourite.
I'm going to wait and see if there's going to be a 2011 season before making any predictions - negotiations concerning the Collective Bargaining Agreement are ongoing.
It's interesting to note the following about Superbowls since the 1990 season:
* Winning teams have scored 31 points in three games since 1990 - Denver in SBXXXII, New Orleans in XLIV and the Packers in XLV.
* Nine of the last ten games have been decided by 14 points or less, last night's game was the sixth in the last ten years that's finished with a margin of victory of less than ten points.
* Seven of the last ten games have featured more than 44.5 points.
* Jordy Nelson's TD reception was the first time since SBXXXIX that a 'normal' play had opened the scoring - the scoring in four of the five games since then had been opened by a field goal. Mason Crosby's Field Goal was the first FG to be the last scoring play since Adam Vinatieri's last minute kick in SBXXXVIII.
* The favourites have won 15 of the last 21 games.
* 11 of the last 21 MVPs have been quarterbacks. Eight of those 11 players were starting QBs for the favourite.
I'm going to wait and see if there's going to be a 2011 season before making any predictions - negotiations concerning the Collective Bargaining Agreement are ongoing.
Sunday, 6 February 2011
Superbowl XLV Preview
A few weeks ago I recommended laying Green Bay for the Superbowl: so no matter how much I try to be unbiased in this preview, it's important to remember that my current position is opposing the favourite. The favourites are 14 of 20 in Superbowls since 1990 and six of ten since Superbowl XXXV.
Before we go any further, this game is going to be CLOSE. Fourteen of the last 20 Superbowls have been decided to 14 points or less, eight of the last 20 games have been decided by a converted TD or less and four games in the last decade have been decided by a FG or less. The last five regular season games between the Steelers and Packers have all been settled by 14 points or less. Did I mention close?
The other thing to remember is that although the game is at a neutral venue, it's best to treat it as an away game for both teams when attempting to compile odds. I normally use a sample size of 20, so here are those numbers:
Last 20 Road Games (including playoffs)
Green Bay 11-9, 2-2 v AFC
Pittsburgh 13-7, 3-2 v NFC (includes Superbowl win over Arizona)
So pretty close there...it's interesting to note that the Steelers haven't had a home playoff game for a while, so their last away playoff game was Superbowl XLIII.
Advantage: Steelers
Record in Superbowls
Steelers are 6-1 in Superbowls and have won a title in three of the last four decades - they've also won two of the last five world titles. The Packers are 3-1 and lost their last appearance was in 1997, so it's fair to say that the Steelers have been there more recently and have experience on their side.
Advantage: Steelers
Head To Head
The Packers lead the series 18-14, but the Steelers have won the last three of the five regular season meetings between the teams since 1990. Last Packers win was on Christmas Eve 1995.
Advantage: Steelers
Winner Profile (From 1990 NY Giants until 2009 New Orleans Saints)
This is what I referred to in this post back in November, which is a technique that I also use when carrying out pre-season football analysis. Thirteen different teams have won the last 20 Superbowls so there's plenty of material.
The Steelers have a slim advantage in this area. Winning the AFC North with a 12-4 record puts them in good company as teams with 12-4 records are 7-2 in the last 20 games. Having won an extra three games this season is also important - teams that have achieved that 'year on year' improvement are 2-1in Superbowls.
That's not to say that the Packers don't have anything going for them - their 2009 regular season record (11-5) puts them in the group of four teams that reached the Superbowl the season after they finished with 11 wins. There is a slight disadvantage for the Packers in this respect as those teams are 2-2: Green Bay have been consistent over the last couple of seasons but haven't been good enough to win the NFC North - divisional ruuners up are 2-5 over the last 20 Superbowls and that includes the losers of the last two games (Arizona and Indianapolis).
Having won three more games this season seems to indicate that the Steelers have shown an improvement while the Packers have 'merely' been consistent - and that could be crucial.
Loser Profile
This isn't good news for the Steelers. 19 of the last 20 runners up won their division the season they reached the Superbowl and lost, and as the AFC have more losses than wins in the last two decades it doesn't look so hot for Pittsburgh from that point of view.
General Statistics
You had to have scored more than 18 points to have won a Superbowl since 1990 - 19 of the last 20 winners managed that, the only team that didn't were the NY Giants in Superbowl XLII.
A typical score for the last 20 games would be 30-18 - which would fit within the 14 point handicap mentioned at the start of the article - but the mode score is 20-17, which fits the 14 point margin of victory and also allows for the 'winning field goal scenario'.
20-17 is also incredibly close to the results of Superbowls XXV (Giants 20, Bills 19 - last second FG missed) and Superbowl XXXVI (Patriots 20, Rams 17 - last second FG converted).
The first scoring play in 12 of the last 20 games has been a field goal - eight of those have been scored by the pre-game favourite. So a Packers FG to open the scoring wouldn't be a bad idea. The least likely play would be a Steeler rushing TD...but I don't want to get involved with that...
The last scoring play in 15 of the last 20 games has been a TD of some sort (eight pass receptions, three interceptions returned for scores, two rushing TDs, a kick off return and a fumble recovery) but eight of those scores were by the pre-game underdogs. Five were pass receptions, two were interceptions.
Quarterbacks have won half of the last 20 MVP awards; in games where the favourites won, the winning QB won the award.
VERDICT
Considering that the Packers are favourites, the margin of victory markets are remarkably similar. I'm also up against it as favourites have won 14 times since 1990, but I'm not going to try to trade out of my position as I still think the Steelers have a good chance of winning.
However, I'm not tied to this position so going on statistics, I'm recommending the following:
* Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) to win MVP
* First Scoring Play: Packers Field Goal
* Last Scoring Play: Steelers TD
* Over 44 points
Before we go any further, this game is going to be CLOSE. Fourteen of the last 20 Superbowls have been decided to 14 points or less, eight of the last 20 games have been decided by a converted TD or less and four games in the last decade have been decided by a FG or less. The last five regular season games between the Steelers and Packers have all been settled by 14 points or less. Did I mention close?
The other thing to remember is that although the game is at a neutral venue, it's best to treat it as an away game for both teams when attempting to compile odds. I normally use a sample size of 20, so here are those numbers:
Last 20 Road Games (including playoffs)
Green Bay 11-9, 2-2 v AFC
Pittsburgh 13-7, 3-2 v NFC (includes Superbowl win over Arizona)
So pretty close there...it's interesting to note that the Steelers haven't had a home playoff game for a while, so their last away playoff game was Superbowl XLIII.
Advantage: Steelers
Record in Superbowls
Steelers are 6-1 in Superbowls and have won a title in three of the last four decades - they've also won two of the last five world titles. The Packers are 3-1 and lost their last appearance was in 1997, so it's fair to say that the Steelers have been there more recently and have experience on their side.
Advantage: Steelers
Head To Head
The Packers lead the series 18-14, but the Steelers have won the last three of the five regular season meetings between the teams since 1990. Last Packers win was on Christmas Eve 1995.
Advantage: Steelers
Winner Profile (From 1990 NY Giants until 2009 New Orleans Saints)
This is what I referred to in this post back in November, which is a technique that I also use when carrying out pre-season football analysis. Thirteen different teams have won the last 20 Superbowls so there's plenty of material.
The Steelers have a slim advantage in this area. Winning the AFC North with a 12-4 record puts them in good company as teams with 12-4 records are 7-2 in the last 20 games. Having won an extra three games this season is also important - teams that have achieved that 'year on year' improvement are 2-1in Superbowls.
That's not to say that the Packers don't have anything going for them - their 2009 regular season record (11-5) puts them in the group of four teams that reached the Superbowl the season after they finished with 11 wins. There is a slight disadvantage for the Packers in this respect as those teams are 2-2: Green Bay have been consistent over the last couple of seasons but haven't been good enough to win the NFC North - divisional ruuners up are 2-5 over the last 20 Superbowls and that includes the losers of the last two games (Arizona and Indianapolis).
Having won three more games this season seems to indicate that the Steelers have shown an improvement while the Packers have 'merely' been consistent - and that could be crucial.
Loser Profile
This isn't good news for the Steelers. 19 of the last 20 runners up won their division the season they reached the Superbowl and lost, and as the AFC have more losses than wins in the last two decades it doesn't look so hot for Pittsburgh from that point of view.
General Statistics
You had to have scored more than 18 points to have won a Superbowl since 1990 - 19 of the last 20 winners managed that, the only team that didn't were the NY Giants in Superbowl XLII.
A typical score for the last 20 games would be 30-18 - which would fit within the 14 point handicap mentioned at the start of the article - but the mode score is 20-17, which fits the 14 point margin of victory and also allows for the 'winning field goal scenario'.
20-17 is also incredibly close to the results of Superbowls XXV (Giants 20, Bills 19 - last second FG missed) and Superbowl XXXVI (Patriots 20, Rams 17 - last second FG converted).
The first scoring play in 12 of the last 20 games has been a field goal - eight of those have been scored by the pre-game favourite. So a Packers FG to open the scoring wouldn't be a bad idea. The least likely play would be a Steeler rushing TD...but I don't want to get involved with that...
The last scoring play in 15 of the last 20 games has been a TD of some sort (eight pass receptions, three interceptions returned for scores, two rushing TDs, a kick off return and a fumble recovery) but eight of those scores were by the pre-game underdogs. Five were pass receptions, two were interceptions.
Quarterbacks have won half of the last 20 MVP awards; in games where the favourites won, the winning QB won the award.
VERDICT
Considering that the Packers are favourites, the margin of victory markets are remarkably similar. I'm also up against it as favourites have won 14 times since 1990, but I'm not going to try to trade out of my position as I still think the Steelers have a good chance of winning.
However, I'm not tied to this position so going on statistics, I'm recommending the following:
* Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) to win MVP
* First Scoring Play: Packers Field Goal
* Last Scoring Play: Steelers TD
* Over 44 points
Friday, 4 February 2011
Weekend Tips For Belgium & Greece
Saturday
Greece
5:30pm
AEK v Aris
Under 2.5 goals - it's a Greek game after all - and back AEK, who have won 10 of the last 11 home games against Aris.
Belgium
7:00pm
ANDERLECHT v St. Truiden
Anderlecht are too short to back, so it may be worth looking at the hosts keeping a clean sheet - the hosts have kept eight clean sheets in 11 home games, including last three straight. STVV have scored in nine of the last 15 meetings at Anderlecht, but are only averaging half a goal per away game this season.
Cercle Brugge v Mechelen
Both teams to score - Mechelen have only failed to score twice in the last eight meetings and Cercle are conceding exactly one goal per home games. I've got to admit that I'm not totally convinced about backing Cercle to win though.
Watching Brief
Charleroi v Zulte
Possible 0-0 here - they've been involved in six goalless draws this season, which is the same number as the Beerschot v Lokeren game (see below). I was originally going to recommend opposing Charleroi, but Zulte's record at Charleroi isn't great (one win in the last five visits) and so checking the score out when the game's finished may be the best option
Sunday
Greece
1:00pm
KAVALA v Kerkyra
Not much head to head form to go on, so once again opposing Kerkyra is probably the way forward.
Ergotelis v Panionios
This is a quandary - Ergotelis kept coming up in my number crunching, but there's no real reason why they're better than Panionios, they're just vaguely 'better' at home than Panionios are away, which could apply to about 90% of games across Europe this weekend...opposing Panionios may be the best move.
Belgium
5:00pm
Beerschot v Lokeren
Under 2.5 goals. Three of the last five meetings have been under and despite their lowly position in the table, only Anderlecht have conceded fewer goals than Beerschot this season.
Greece
5:30pm
AEK v Aris
Under 2.5 goals - it's a Greek game after all - and back AEK, who have won 10 of the last 11 home games against Aris.
Belgium
7:00pm
ANDERLECHT v St. Truiden
Anderlecht are too short to back, so it may be worth looking at the hosts keeping a clean sheet - the hosts have kept eight clean sheets in 11 home games, including last three straight. STVV have scored in nine of the last 15 meetings at Anderlecht, but are only averaging half a goal per away game this season.
Cercle Brugge v Mechelen
Both teams to score - Mechelen have only failed to score twice in the last eight meetings and Cercle are conceding exactly one goal per home games. I've got to admit that I'm not totally convinced about backing Cercle to win though.
Watching Brief
Charleroi v Zulte
Possible 0-0 here - they've been involved in six goalless draws this season, which is the same number as the Beerschot v Lokeren game (see below). I was originally going to recommend opposing Charleroi, but Zulte's record at Charleroi isn't great (one win in the last five visits) and so checking the score out when the game's finished may be the best option
Sunday
Greece
1:00pm
KAVALA v Kerkyra
Not much head to head form to go on, so once again opposing Kerkyra is probably the way forward.
Ergotelis v Panionios
This is a quandary - Ergotelis kept coming up in my number crunching, but there's no real reason why they're better than Panionios, they're just vaguely 'better' at home than Panionios are away, which could apply to about 90% of games across Europe this weekend...opposing Panionios may be the best move.
Belgium
5:00pm
Beerschot v Lokeren
Under 2.5 goals. Three of the last five meetings have been under and despite their lowly position in the table, only Anderlecht have conceded fewer goals than Beerschot this season.
Wednesday, 2 February 2011
If It's Wednesday, It Must Be Belgium...
Four catch up games tonight in the Jupiler Pro League, one is worth a look:
Mechelen v Kortrijk
Under 2.5 goals
As Anderlecht - and my wallet - found out on Sunday night, Mechelen are a tough team to break down at home. They've only conceded six goals in eleven home games this season and this is a traditionally low scoring game - four of the last six league games have finished in draws, the last two finished 1-1 and a similar scoreline tonight wouldn't be a big surprise. Kortrijk are also have trouble scoring away from home.
As for the others, Zulte-Waregem might have problems at Eupen and although Genk should beat St. Truiden, Genk's price is so low that it might even be worth laying them before the kick off and letting the price drift in play - there may not be many goals in the game, so you'd have to be patient.
Mechelen v Kortrijk
Under 2.5 goals
As Anderlecht - and my wallet - found out on Sunday night, Mechelen are a tough team to break down at home. They've only conceded six goals in eleven home games this season and this is a traditionally low scoring game - four of the last six league games have finished in draws, the last two finished 1-1 and a similar scoreline tonight wouldn't be a big surprise. Kortrijk are also have trouble scoring away from home.
As for the others, Zulte-Waregem might have problems at Eupen and although Genk should beat St. Truiden, Genk's price is so low that it might even be worth laying them before the kick off and letting the price drift in play - there may not be many goals in the game, so you'd have to be patient.
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