NFL Play Offs

There's an old NFL quote that goes something along the lines of 'offense wins games but defense wins championships' - and I think we're going to see if that stands up tonight as we've got two of the best in action this evening.

Pittsburgh Steelers 12-4 v Baltimore Ravens 12-4


Regular season:
Pittsburgh 5-3 at home 1-3 against teams with records better than .500
Baltimore 5-3 on the road, 2-2 against teams with .500 records
Ravens won at Pittsburgh in Week 4


Pittsburgh start as favourites, although this probably has more to do with their recent record at Heinz Field against the Ravens - seven wins in the last ten meetings, plus two wins in both the playoff games between these two (2001 and 2008). Normally it would be tempting to use the Ravens win in Pittsburgh as some kind of upset indicator, but as various sources are pointing out today, Steelers' QB Ben Roethlisberger was suspended for that game.


What does appear to be significant is the head to head record between 'C' grade teams (those that finished third in their division the season before) and 'B' grade teams (those that finished second in their division before) - in 2009 there was a clear advantage for the C teams, but that's shifted the other way this season and Baltimore could benefit from it as Pittsburgh is 1-2 this season against B sides. The Ravens were 2-0 on the road against C sides.

However...this is going to be a defensive battle. The cutoff in the total points market is 37, which is really low - ten of the last fifteen games between these two in Pittsburgh have been over - and if it comes down to the better defense, then the Steelers will advance to the AFC Championship Game.


Prediction: I'm going to watch this game with a couple of cans. I can't see either side winning by more than a touchdown, so a small punt on Pittsburgh winning by 1 to 6 points looks solid. That being said, that kind of margin of victory is potential overtime territory and that option is available at a big price so it may be worth a nibble.


Atlanta Falcons 13-3 v Green Bay Packers 10-6


OK, I admit I got last weekend's Wild Card game wrong and I've layed the Pack for Superbowl XLV as I recommended so I've already got reasons to want the Falcons to win. So I'm going to be as objective as possible in this preview!


Regular Season:
Falcons 8-1 at home, 3-1 against teams over .500
Packers 3-5 on the road, 2-3 against teams over .500
Falcons beat Packers 20-17 in Week 11


Atlanta has won eight of the 12 regular season meetings between these two (four of the last five), although they've faced each other twice in the playoffs both of those games were in Wisconsin and the series is split.


This is a B/B game (ie between divisional runners up in 2009) and unlike the situation I outlined in the Pittsburgh/Baltimore preview, this is a far clearer outcome. Over the last two regular seasons the home teams are 22-10 (about 1.47), which seems to support an Atlanta win: the Falcons were 3-0 against other B teams at home this season. Green Bay was 2-1 on the road against other B teams but crucially the loss was to the Falcons.

Prediction: I'd probably pick the Falcons, but their price has been drifting badly today and the reason has got to be because the Packers defence should be able to cope with them. The points line is higher in this game but if you're thinking over taking over 44 you're basically taking a Packers win. I still don't think the Packers will win it all, but I wouldn't be surprised if they cause another upset.