Monday Night Football

Hmm. Ordinarily - and especially after last week's poor performance - I'd be happy with two out of three, but I'm a bit annoyed with the Saints. Still, I was up until gone 1am GMT watching the Raiders beat the Chargers for the first time since September 2003 so I'm not going to moan too much.

NY Jets (3-1) v Minnesota Vikings (1-2)
Subplots everywhere here. Vikings QB Brett Favre was a Jet in 2008, newly acquired Minnesota WR Randy Moss was accused of slacking off by Jets' defender Darelle Revis earlier in the season etc etc. So what are the numbers suggesting?

Well, the Vikings are currently on a four game regular season losing streak and have never beaten the Jets on the road but this looks as if it might be really close because the Jets aren't exactly a powerhouse at home, having lost nine of their last 20 games in New Jersey. The key to this game looks as if it's how the Jets perform defensively: if they can keep the Vikings from scoring more than fourteen points then they should win. The good news for them is that they've kept opponents to an average of eight points in their last five regular season home games; the bad news for Minnesota is that the Vikings have only averaged 20 points in their last five regular season road games - and remember, the Vikings have lost five of those.

The Jets are the favourites but as the odds seem to be based on the head to head meetings between the sides, the average price of 1.44 looks too short to me. A Vikings win would be very good value, but how likely is it? Minnesota's head to head record against the Jets is their worst against any team in the NFL and they've lost seven of their last ten Monday night games, so I'm going to recommend laying Minnesota rather than backing the Jets.

It's a bit early to be looking forward to next weekend's games, but there are some good ones: by far the tastiest is New England v Baltimore, which could easily be a playoff game at the end of the season.