Streak Snapped!

The inevitable fall: Avai 0, Atletico Paranaense 1.


The circumstances couldn't have been any more ridiculous either - the video is below, 6:40 is where the fun starts if you don't want to watch the entire game. With the score at 0-0, Atletico (red and black stripes) were down to ten with six minutes left after substitute Leandro was sent off after receiving two yellow cards in two minutes. Then in the fifth minute of injury time, Maikon Leite scored the winner and did a nice little dance.




It's not exactly back to the drawing board stuff (the half time result went the way I wanted it to) but at times like this it's worth having a look at any evidence that indicates that I was about to make a mistake...and there's plenty of it.

* Avai had lost their last home game and Atletico had won their last away game, but that's not necessarily a big mistake in itself but could be seen as a possible warning. The next point is a mistake.

* Not enough head to head form - just the one game. The further back you can go the more information you can collect and in Football League games data is available going back to the 19th century - if you use the head to head feature at www.soccerbase.com you'll see what I mean. Try Aston Villa and Everton.

* I deviated from the Strategy With No Name - I should have backed Avai/draw rather than laying Atletico, because I would have minimised my losses.

Re-reading the preview is enlightening. I was confident that my prediction was a good one but I also had some misgivings...however, without the referee and his stopwatch I might have won part of my bets on this game so although it's a blow, it's not terminal and there are other battles to be fought.

And in the case of the college football game in Lubbock, won. SMU kept it close against Texas Tech, but the Red Raiders won by just eight points - which tells you a lot about how far Southern Methodist have come since the days of the death penalty and they may be worth keeping an eye on later in the season. The game I avoided was an absolute barn burner - Eastern Carolina beat Tulsa by two points as the clock ran out. Good job I didn't have any cash on that one - my grey hair would have been white this morning!