Not a bad haul at all, I'll be keeping an eye on Anderlecht going into the championship group play off in Belgium though - Genk are now only four points behind them with a game in hand, which they play this week and is on my provisional list for Wednesday. Anderlecht's draw at Mechelen on Sunday night snapped a six game away winning streak in the league.
I mentioned that St. Truiden hadn't drawn at home all season and that laying the draw in their game against Gent was trappy and it turned out to be that way.
Seven of the eight games in Greece finished under 2.5 goals, but surprisingly the only exception was Larissa's 2-1 win over Panserraikos, which sent the visitors to the bottom of the table. Panserraikos may have a chance to pick up some points next weekend, but that's another game that needs some research.
It's the end of the month, so it's time to do the accounts - I've made a loss this month, but that was on the cards anyway given the losing streak I had earlier in January, but it'll be interesting to see where the leaks were this month.
Still, at least I'd not had any cash on Real Madrid winning La Liga - I watched the end of their defeat at Osasuna and it was full of those ridiculous slow motion close ups of Cristiano Ronaldo about to go into a major strop. Still, you make your bed etc. etc.
Should be another post up either tomorrow afternoon or Wednesday morning with some Belgian tips, still slogging away at a Superbowl Preview as well.
Who Are Ya?
- Mike Roberts
- Bristol, South West, United Kingdom
- Citizen of the UK, where gambling is legal.
Monday, 31 January 2011
Friday, 28 January 2011
Free Tips For Games In Belgium & Greece
There's a chance that all games in the Greek Super League this weekend could be under 2.5 goals, but with Panathinaikos and Atromitos at home and AEK and Panserraikos away it looks unlikely. Oddly enough, the bottom two in both Belgium and Greece play each other this weekend - and both of those games are problematic.
SATURDAY
Greece
3.15pm
Iraklis v Kerkyra
Oppose Kerkyra - under 2.5 might also be worth considering and assuming an Iraklis win, that could be to nil. Iraklis have kept clean sheets in five of their nine games at the Kafantzoglio this season, which is the same number of times Kerkyra have failed to score on their travels.
Belgium
7:00pm
Club Brugge v Germinal Beerschot
Fourth placed Brugge have been a disappointment this season (fourteen points behind Anderlecht already) and they're too short to consider backing here, so the alternative markets kick in - both clubs have defensive frailties but the both teams to score market depends on Beerschot bringing their shooting boots with them. The visitors have only scored once in their last five league visits to the Jan Breydel Stadium and are currently one of six clubs in Belgium that have scored less than one goal per game on the road. Over 2.5 goals is possible, but keep the stake realistic.
Lierse v Charleroi
Bottom two clubs, so some caution advised here - opposing Charleroi looks like the safest course to me. Worth noting that only one of the eight games between the current bottom six has produced more than 2.5 goals and both teams scored in only two of those eight games.
Standard Liege v Westerlo
Definitely worth a look, especially as Standard's price has been drifting all week: despite Westerlo showing an improvement on the road this season, they've lost the last eight league games in Liege and have failed to score in seven of those.
KORTRIJK v Cercle Brugge
A nice price for a possible home win. Kortrijk's improvement at home is based on a tough defence and they've beaten Cercle in the last two league meetings in West Flanders. The only caution here would be that Kortrijk have neither won nor scored in their last two home games at the Guldensporenstadion, which is named after a medieval battle.
Sunday
A couple of possible away wins in Belgium, but I'd tread very carefully with the Greek games
Greece
1:00pm
Panionios v Kavala - watching brief only.
On paper, this game is one where over 2.5 goals is totally unthinkable...until you get to the head to head record. Four of the last five meetings at Panionios have been over. If you can find any markets for over/under 3000 spectators, take under, but the tentative recommendation is for Panionios NOT to keep a clean sheet
3:15pm
Larissa v Pansseraikos
Finding a way to oppose Pansseraikos looks like the right choice here as they've only won once in their last five trips to central Greece, but here's an official caveat emptor. Games between the current bottom four in the Super League have produced only one home win this season and that was the reverse fixture between these two at the beginning of October...I'm almost tempted to say wait and see what happens between Lierse and Charleroi on Saturday and then back whatever outcome that game produced.
Update: leave this one alone as well.
Belgium
5:00pm
Mechelen v Anderlecht
Hosts have only lost once at home this season (to Club Brugge, which is significant because despite having a disappointing season they're one of the better teams in Belgium) but have only beaten Anderlecht twice in the league at home in the last nine league meetings. Anderlecht are good for at least one goal so Mechelen not to keep a clean sheet could be worth a nibble if the price isn't too silly.
7:30pm
St Truiden v Gent
Possibly lay the draw - Gent have won six of the last ten visits to St. Truiden in the league and the hosts have yet to draw at home. It's trappy, but the alternative - Gent draw no bet - is too short.
SATURDAY
Greece
3.15pm
Iraklis v Kerkyra
Oppose Kerkyra - under 2.5 might also be worth considering and assuming an Iraklis win, that could be to nil. Iraklis have kept clean sheets in five of their nine games at the Kafantzoglio this season, which is the same number of times Kerkyra have failed to score on their travels.
Belgium
7:00pm
Club Brugge v Germinal Beerschot
Fourth placed Brugge have been a disappointment this season (fourteen points behind Anderlecht already) and they're too short to consider backing here, so the alternative markets kick in - both clubs have defensive frailties but the both teams to score market depends on Beerschot bringing their shooting boots with them. The visitors have only scored once in their last five league visits to the Jan Breydel Stadium and are currently one of six clubs in Belgium that have scored less than one goal per game on the road. Over 2.5 goals is possible, but keep the stake realistic.
Lierse v Charleroi
Bottom two clubs, so some caution advised here - opposing Charleroi looks like the safest course to me. Worth noting that only one of the eight games between the current bottom six has produced more than 2.5 goals and both teams scored in only two of those eight games.
Standard Liege v Westerlo
Definitely worth a look, especially as Standard's price has been drifting all week: despite Westerlo showing an improvement on the road this season, they've lost the last eight league games in Liege and have failed to score in seven of those.
KORTRIJK v Cercle Brugge
A nice price for a possible home win. Kortrijk's improvement at home is based on a tough defence and they've beaten Cercle in the last two league meetings in West Flanders. The only caution here would be that Kortrijk have neither won nor scored in their last two home games at the Guldensporenstadion, which is named after a medieval battle.
Sunday
A couple of possible away wins in Belgium, but I'd tread very carefully with the Greek games
Greece
1:00pm
Panionios v Kavala - watching brief only.
On paper, this game is one where over 2.5 goals is totally unthinkable...until you get to the head to head record. Four of the last five meetings at Panionios have been over. If you can find any markets for over/under 3000 spectators, take under, but the tentative recommendation is for Panionios NOT to keep a clean sheet
3:15pm
Larissa v Pansseraikos
Finding a way to oppose Pansseraikos looks like the right choice here as they've only won once in their last five trips to central Greece, but here's an official caveat emptor. Games between the current bottom four in the Super League have produced only one home win this season and that was the reverse fixture between these two at the beginning of October...I'm almost tempted to say wait and see what happens between Lierse and Charleroi on Saturday and then back whatever outcome that game produced.
Update: leave this one alone as well.
Belgium
5:00pm
Mechelen v Anderlecht
Hosts have only lost once at home this season (to Club Brugge, which is significant because despite having a disappointing season they're one of the better teams in Belgium) but have only beaten Anderlecht twice in the league at home in the last nine league meetings. Anderlecht are good for at least one goal so Mechelen not to keep a clean sheet could be worth a nibble if the price isn't too silly.
7:30pm
St Truiden v Gent
Possibly lay the draw - Gent have won six of the last ten visits to St. Truiden in the league and the hosts have yet to draw at home. It's trappy, but the alternative - Gent draw no bet - is too short.
Wednesday, 26 January 2011
Forest Win, Doncaster Don't
Well, I've got to say that both last night's results in the nPower Championship are typical Bristol City. It didn't come as too much of a shock that City lost at Nottingham Forest, but I should have guessed that our latest 'export' would score both of the goals as Barnsley beat Doncaster at the Keepmoat Stadium for the third time in a row. City travel to Barnsley on April 9th - I'll take a look at Haynes' anytime goalscorer odds at that point.
There'll be a weekend post up on Friday afternoon featuring games from Belgium and Greece (it's a cup weekend in Portugal) and I'm currently in the middle of writing a Superbowl preview as well as drafting some thoughts on the forthcoming MLB season, which starts on March 31st. I've already identified a couple of possible World Series contenders that are currently available at big prices, but more about them later.
Update: I've got a rare lay tip today - Marching Song in the 1:45 at Huntingdon.
There'll be a weekend post up on Friday afternoon featuring games from Belgium and Greece (it's a cup weekend in Portugal) and I'm currently in the middle of writing a Superbowl preview as well as drafting some thoughts on the forthcoming MLB season, which starts on March 31st. I've already identified a couple of possible World Series contenders that are currently available at big prices, but more about them later.
Update: I've got a rare lay tip today - Marching Song in the 1:45 at Huntingdon.
Monday, 24 January 2011
Tuesday's Free Tips, nPower Championship Edition
Three games in the nPower Championship tomorrow, two are worth a look but neither of them are as clear cut as they might appear. Home wins in bold, banker is in caps...but make sure you read the Forest preview!
NOTTINGHAM FOREST v Bristol City
Forest's home winning streak in the league is now ridiculous (32 regular season home games without defeat stretching back to September 2009) and although City haven't won at the City Ground since November 1955, they've beaten Swansea and drawn with QPR away from home this season.
I'm not going to go as far as predicting an upset, but City could nick a point and Forest's win price is far too short. Home team not to keep a clean sheet might also be worth a nibble, but it might be profitable to start opposing Forest at home over the next few weeks - they can't go undefeated forever.
Recommendation: oppose City, but don't go overboard on a Forest win.
Doncaster Rovers v Barnsley
Doncaster are one of the most improved teams in the Championship this season which could be a problem for Barnsley, who are lucky that their home form is shoring them up at the moment - away from Oakwell they're playing like a team that should be in the bottom six. Having said that...Barnsley have won their last two league visits to the Keepmoat Stadium and Donny have only won half of the last ten league games between them with home advantage. Looking at this game purely from the point of view of Yorkshire derbies in the Championship so far, home teams have won four of the six games so far - the others were drawn.
Recommendation: oppose Barnsley as they've only got about 20% chance of winning this. Don't rule out a draw though.
NOTTINGHAM FOREST v Bristol City
Forest's home winning streak in the league is now ridiculous (32 regular season home games without defeat stretching back to September 2009) and although City haven't won at the City Ground since November 1955, they've beaten Swansea and drawn with QPR away from home this season.
I'm not going to go as far as predicting an upset, but City could nick a point and Forest's win price is far too short. Home team not to keep a clean sheet might also be worth a nibble, but it might be profitable to start opposing Forest at home over the next few weeks - they can't go undefeated forever.
Recommendation: oppose City, but don't go overboard on a Forest win.
Doncaster Rovers v Barnsley
Doncaster are one of the most improved teams in the Championship this season which could be a problem for Barnsley, who are lucky that their home form is shoring them up at the moment - away from Oakwell they're playing like a team that should be in the bottom six. Having said that...Barnsley have won their last two league visits to the Keepmoat Stadium and Donny have only won half of the last ten league games between them with home advantage. Looking at this game purely from the point of view of Yorkshire derbies in the Championship so far, home teams have won four of the six games so far - the others were drawn.
Recommendation: oppose Barnsley as they've only got about 20% chance of winning this. Don't rule out a draw though.
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