Tuesday Night Football

Cincinnati 21, Pittsburgh 27
Half right again, although my assessment that Cincinnati needed to score at least 23 points to win was correct, as was laying under 50 points.

Pittsburgh's impressive run against the Bengals continues and as they meet again at Heinz Field on December 12th then I'll run some more numbers at that point. Back to association football today. 

Premiership:
Tottenham v Sunderland
Sunderland have only won once in their last 20 away games and twice in their last 20 visits to White Hart Lane so opposing them looks like the way forward to me. Although seven out of the last ten games in North London have featured over 2.5 goals, neither of these teams have been prolific in front of goal in the Premiership this season and under 2.5 goals might prove a rewarding investment.

Championship:
Ipswich v Derby
Interesting game between two sides in the top six. Ipswich have a good record against the Rams at Portman Road (eight wins in the last ten games) but although they're value for the win, the possibility of a low scoring game means this also looks like a really good opportunity to dutch the Ipswich win and the draw.

There's another game in the Championship that might be worth a small consideration: Burnley v Doncaster. There will probably be more than 2.5 goals in this one, but most of them will probably be in the second half and there's a very good chance that Burnley might score one in the last ten minutes.

Monday Night Football

No Premiership tonight, so it's the first of two NFL games during the week.

Cincinnati Bengals v Pittsburgh Steelers
First Monday Night Football meeting since October 13th 1986. Considering they're at home and this is an AFC North divisional rivalry, the Bengals have a pretty poor record against the Steelers. The team from the Queen City have won only five of the last 20 regular season games against Pittsburgh at Paul Brown Stadium - the last time they won consecutive games against tonight's opponents was way back in 89/90. Not surprisingly, there's no value for a Pittsburgh win so it's off to Total Points land we go.

Nearly all of bookies on Oddschecker have imposed a 41 point limit on the under/over market, which is obviously based on the last twenty head to head meetings - exactly half of those games have featured a total of under 41 points. However, if we assume a Steelers win (the Bengals need to score at least 23 points to win) then only three of the last games that Pittsburgh won in Cincinnati were over 41 points; so basically Under 41 points is the recommendation - apart from Betfair, where I'd recommend laying over 50 points.

Sunday Results

Not bad, although Anderlecht had to come from behind for half the bet to win.

Hajduk Split 4, NK Zagreb 1

Result was correct, far too many goals though. A couple of interest looking games next week, the outstanding game is NK Split v Dinamo Zagreb but there's also one that could make some money. More of that one later in the week.

Debrecen 4, Szolnoki MAV 0

Bingo! I got the Lombard-Papa/Vasas Budapest game right yesterday as well, so looking at Hungary wasn't a bad idea. The winter break starts on 5th December and finishes at the end of February; the season finishes at the end of May. Debrecen are at home next weekend as well.

Anderlecht 2, Club Brugge 2

Proper mixed bag. At one point Anderlecht were two goals down, so by levelling the score they actually won the goals bet.

Cercle Brugge 0, Gent 1

A Tim Smolders penalty about 20 minutes from time screwed this one. Gent still have a pretty good home record so that's one to remember for later.

Looking forward to this week - there's a lot of action in both the Premiership and the Championship and I'm going to be adding Portugal and Spain into the mix for the weekend.

Sunday Tips

I've avoided the obvious games today, so here are a few from the competitions from countries where I've had holidays.

Hajduk Split v NK Zagreb (Croatia, 3pm GMT)
Hajduk are one of two teams in Croatia with unbeaten home records; they also haven't lost at home in the league for a calendar year. Hajduk win, under 2.5 goals might be worth a look as Zagreb have failed to score in three of their last five visits to Split and the hosts have kept 11 clean sheets in their last 20 home games.

Debrecen v Szolnoki MAV (Hungary 4pm GMT)
Debrecen unbeaten at home in the league, Szolnoki haven't won away yet. Although a Debrecen win is likely it doesn't have any value so Debrecen to win both halves might be worth a small bet. Over 2.5 goals is also likely although that might mean Debrecen having to score three themselves as Szolnoki have failed to score in four of their six away league games this season; having said that Debrecen haven only kept one clean sheet at home in the league so far.

Anderlecht v Club Brugge (Belgium 5pm GMT)
Anderlecht unbeaten at home, lost only one of the last nine meetings between these two in Brussels. An Anderlecht win represents value, over 2.5 goals is worth a look as well.

Cercle Brugge v Gent (Belgium 7:30pm GMT)
Cercle Brugge are unbeaten at home and have only lost one of their last twenty games but Gent have won three of the last five meetings against Cercle. Form could go out of the window and Ghent will be hoping that theirs improves - they've lost their last three away games. I'm going to dutch Cercle and the draw as I don't think Gent will win.