Seattle Seahawks 7-9 v New Orleans Saints 11-5
There shouldn't be a surprise here - the Saints are the short priced favourites and their current win price has no value whatsoever. The all time head to head record between these two in Seattle is 3-3, but the problem the Seahawks face is that they're 1-3 at home this season against teams that finished with winning records and the Saints are 4-1 on the road against teams that finished with losing records.
I think we're looking at a two touchdown win for the Saints in a game that's going to feature approximately 47 points...but the big question mark over this game is that New Orleans has to win a playoff game on the road for the first time. In comparison, Seattle is 5-2 in home playoff games and has won four straight: there is some upset potential here.
Recommendation: whatever happens in this game, it's unlikely that either of these teams will win the Superbowl. Although back to back winners aren't unheard of (the Cowboys, Broncos and Patriots have all managed to do this in the last 20 years), there have only been four winners who emerged from the Wild Card Round since 1990.
Lay whoever wins this game for Superbowl XLV.
Update: 44 points at half time, with the Saints ahead.
Indianapolis 10-6 v New York Jets 11-5
Surprisingly, the Colts are value to win this game. They are 6-2 at home, a record that included two wins over sides that finished over .500 (Giants, Kansas City). The Jets finished the regular season with an impressive 6-2 on the road, but were 1-2 against teams with winning records (lost to New England and Chicago but beat Pittsburgh).
Additionally, the Colts have won 12 of last 20 against the Jets at home, but have only won three of the last five regular season games. The only time these teams have met in the playoffs was last January (Colts won 30-17); the Colts are 10 of 15 in home playoff games (that includes the games when they were the Baltimore Colts) and the Jets are 5 of 14 in road playoff games - which includes the two games they won last season before being knocked out by Indianapolis.
Recommendation: Colts win.
Who Are Ya?
- Mike Roberts
- Bristol, South West, United Kingdom
- Citizen of the UK, where gambling is legal.
Saturday, 8 January 2011
Saturday Tips
First thing to emphasise: I am on a losing streak - so it'll either get worse or (hopefully!) I can start turning the situation around. Here are today's tips, there are no FA Cup games amongst them, although I'm going to back Sunderland to win the competition but purely because I think they may be worth trading if they progress to the latter rounds.
The NFL Wild Card Tips will be posted before those games kick off.
Greece
3:15pm
Kavala v Larissa
Larissa have lost their last three away games and have only won once in their last five trips to Kavala. Opposing Larissa looks solid, but it's worth pointing out that the hosts haven't kept a home clean sheet this season and both teams to score could be worth a nibble.
Spain
5:00pm
Malaga v Athletic Bilbao
Over 2.5 goals, both teams to score
Greece
5:30pm
PANATHINAIKOS v Aris
Panathinaikos are only really any value in terms of their head to head record against Aris over the last few seasons - seven wins and two draws in the past ten league games versus Aris at the Olympic Stadium - so it may be worth keeping an eye on their price before kick off. Currently only one bookie is offering over 1.5 for the Panathinaikos win and because this could be a low scoring game there are trappy elements to this match.
Spain
7:00pm
Real Sociedad v Sevilla
Real Sociedad to score - they've scored in every single home game this season and Sevilla haven't kept a clean sheet away from home. Price could be a factor here.
Portugal
9:15pm
Sporting Lisbon v Braga
The are a couple of reasons why Sporting Lisbon are priced so competitively: Braga have won the last two league games at the Alvalade and Sporting have only won two of their six home games in the Superliga this season. Even so, I think there's about a 70% chance that Braga won't win this evening, especially as they haven't won away all season, so opposing them would might be a good idea. Doesn't look as if there'll be many goals in this one - the earlier game in Greece between Panathinaikos and Aris looks similar to this one.
The NFL Wild Card Tips will be posted before those games kick off.
Greece
3:15pm
Kavala v Larissa
Larissa have lost their last three away games and have only won once in their last five trips to Kavala. Opposing Larissa looks solid, but it's worth pointing out that the hosts haven't kept a home clean sheet this season and both teams to score could be worth a nibble.
Spain
5:00pm
Malaga v Athletic Bilbao
Over 2.5 goals, both teams to score
Greece
5:30pm
PANATHINAIKOS v Aris
Panathinaikos are only really any value in terms of their head to head record against Aris over the last few seasons - seven wins and two draws in the past ten league games versus Aris at the Olympic Stadium - so it may be worth keeping an eye on their price before kick off. Currently only one bookie is offering over 1.5 for the Panathinaikos win and because this could be a low scoring game there are trappy elements to this match.
Spain
7:00pm
Real Sociedad v Sevilla
Real Sociedad to score - they've scored in every single home game this season and Sevilla haven't kept a clean sheet away from home. Price could be a factor here.
Portugal
9:15pm
Sporting Lisbon v Braga
The are a couple of reasons why Sporting Lisbon are priced so competitively: Braga have won the last two league games at the Alvalade and Sporting have only won two of their six home games in the Superliga this season. Even so, I think there's about a 70% chance that Braga won't win this evening, especially as they haven't won away all season, so opposing them would might be a good idea. Doesn't look as if there'll be many goals in this one - the earlier game in Greece between Panathinaikos and Aris looks similar to this one.
Wednesday, 5 January 2011
Warning: Losing Streak Ahead!
It's official: January is off to a real stinker. Villa lost and Bolton didn't win, so today's been a total washout. Fortunately I'm not going to get involved with individual games in the FA Cup this weekend, which is probably a good thing under the circumstances. I'll have some tips for Greece, Portugal and Spain posted at the end of the week plus some thoughts about the NFL playoffs, but it might be worth doing the exact opposite of what I recommend!
Wednesday Tips Part 2
Sometimes you've got to laugh at this game. I managed to pick the Greek match that featured three goals in as an almost guaranteed under, with two others ending in scoreless draws. Bolton are tonight's home banker.
Premiership
7:45pm
Aston Villa v Sunderland
Villa are only in a mess due to their appalling away record this season, so it's a good job that their home form is holding up - they've only lost to Arsenal and Spurs this season. Despite winning at Chelsea, Sunderland's record on the road is almost as bad as Villa's and they've only won once in their last ten league games at Villa Park so opposing the Black Cats in some way is appealling.
8:00pm
BOLTON v Wigan
According to my numbers, the most improved home side against the most improved away side in the Premiership. Wigan have won two of the last five league meetings at the Reebok, but haven't won back to back away games in the Prem since the end of 2006. The Latics have also lost seven of the ten games immediately after they've won an away game. Both teams to score could be worth a look: Bolton have only kept two clean sheets at home this season, Wigan have scored in five of their nine aways this season and have only failed to score twice in fifteen all time league games at Bolton.
Watching Brief
8:00pm
Blackburn v Liverpool
Lots of contradictions here - getting rid of Sam Allardyce looks like a massive mistake and the Ronaldinho transfer rumours are quickly turning Rovers into a laughing stock. Having said that, their home record is still much better than Liverpool's away form and although a draw might not be out of the question, opposing Blackburn could be the right play - if Liverpool lose, it could be the end of the Roy Hodgson era.
Premiership
7:45pm
Aston Villa v Sunderland
Villa are only in a mess due to their appalling away record this season, so it's a good job that their home form is holding up - they've only lost to Arsenal and Spurs this season. Despite winning at Chelsea, Sunderland's record on the road is almost as bad as Villa's and they've only won once in their last ten league games at Villa Park so opposing the Black Cats in some way is appealling.
8:00pm
BOLTON v Wigan
According to my numbers, the most improved home side against the most improved away side in the Premiership. Wigan have won two of the last five league meetings at the Reebok, but haven't won back to back away games in the Prem since the end of 2006. The Latics have also lost seven of the ten games immediately after they've won an away game. Both teams to score could be worth a look: Bolton have only kept two clean sheets at home this season, Wigan have scored in five of their nine aways this season and have only failed to score twice in fifteen all time league games at Bolton.
Watching Brief
8:00pm
Blackburn v Liverpool
Lots of contradictions here - getting rid of Sam Allardyce looks like a massive mistake and the Ronaldinho transfer rumours are quickly turning Rovers into a laughing stock. Having said that, their home record is still much better than Liverpool's away form and although a draw might not be out of the question, opposing Blackburn could be the right play - if Liverpool lose, it could be the end of the Roy Hodgson era.
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