Due to a prior appointment, I'm going to be posting twice today - there are early games in Greece, so I'll deal with the first two now.
1:00pm GMT
Asteras Tripolis v Ergotelis
Under 2.5 goals - Asteras haven't won at home this season and three of their seven games in Tripoli have been goalless draws. On the other hand, Ergotelis have scored in six of their seven away games...they've just failed to score more than once in any of them. There's a bit of a buyer beware with this one as previous encounters have seen well over 2.5 goals but I'm confident this will be under. As with yesterday's Greek games, watch the price.
3:15pm
AEK v Kerkyra
AEK's win price is too short to be worth bothering with. The goal line is interesting though: under 2.5 looks promising, but AEK are one of the Greek sides that are capable of scoring more than once: Kerkyra lost 3-0 at Ergotelis earlier this season so their defence might be tested in this game.
Who Are Ya?
- Mike Roberts
- Bristol, South West, United Kingdom
- Citizen of the UK, where gambling is legal.
Wednesday, 5 January 2011
Tuesday, 4 January 2011
Tuesday 4th January
I'll start with the results round up - I only missed on one yesterday (Barnsley v Coventry) as I decided not to touch Atletico Madrid's game because the price had shortened too much before kick off. As a basic rule of thumb I won't back a selection if the returns are going to be less than half of the stake.
I traded out of my position on Reading v Burnley for a small profit, but the situation I was most pleased with on Monday was the goals bet on the Real Zaragoza/Real Sociedad game. Zaragoza's Braulio Nobrega scored right at the end of the game to give the hosts a 2-1 win!
There weren't as many opportunities in today's games as I thought - statistically speaking Manchester United look as if they should beat Stoke, but it might be more profitable to look at over 2.5 goals. Three of the last five league games at Old Trafford have been overs and Stoke have failed to score in eight of their last ten visits, so it looks as if United might have to do all the work. However, although Stoke have been beaten away from home without scoring on three occasions this season, they've yet to concede three or more goals in any of their games in the Premiership.
On the other hand...there might be under 2.5 goals in every game in the Greek Super League over the next couple of days. The likelihood of that happening is remote, so I'm tentatively recommending under 2.5 in the game between Aris Salonica and Kavala - but once again, this depends on the best prices before kickoff (5:30pm GMT). If the price shortens to under 1.5 it's not worth taking.
I traded out of my position on Reading v Burnley for a small profit, but the situation I was most pleased with on Monday was the goals bet on the Real Zaragoza/Real Sociedad game. Zaragoza's Braulio Nobrega scored right at the end of the game to give the hosts a 2-1 win!
There weren't as many opportunities in today's games as I thought - statistically speaking Manchester United look as if they should beat Stoke, but it might be more profitable to look at over 2.5 goals. Three of the last five league games at Old Trafford have been overs and Stoke have failed to score in eight of their last ten visits, so it looks as if United might have to do all the work. However, although Stoke have been beaten away from home without scoring on three occasions this season, they've yet to concede three or more goals in any of their games in the Premiership.
On the other hand...there might be under 2.5 goals in every game in the Greek Super League over the next couple of days. The likelihood of that happening is remote, so I'm tentatively recommending under 2.5 in the game between Aris Salonica and Kavala - but once again, this depends on the best prices before kickoff (5:30pm GMT). If the price shortens to under 1.5 it's not worth taking.
Monday, 3 January 2011
Tips For Monday 3rd January
Back to the fray, with games from the Championship and Spain. I won six of my eight Championship recommendations for a three point profit in December, so as they're the early kickoffs on Monday we'll start here.
nPower Championship
Both 3:00pm GMT
Barnsley v Coventry
Under 2.5 goals
Reading v Burnley
Definitely worth a look at the draw or opposing Burnley in this one - the only team that's drawn more games at home than Reading have this season is Nottingham Forest and Burnley have drawn the most games away from home. It also helps that the Clarets haven't won in Berkshire for almost 30 years and five of the last ten league games between these at Reading have finished in draws.
My December predictions for La Liga managed a 50% strike rate, so I'm looking to improve that this month. The main issue was picking home winners amongst the 'second tier' of Spanish clubs so I'm going to be more cautious about those this month. It looks as if Espanyol, Villareal and Osasuna might be worth backing at home in January, so when they're at home I'll add them to the calendar. The goal markets were a bit more consistent (two wins from three recommendations in December) so depending on what comes up there might be some more of those in January.
At time of posting, all three of the recommendations below were drifting, so it's worth keeping an eye on the prices and recycling any wins from the Championship bets if necessary.
La Liga
7:00pm GMT
VILLAREAL v Almeria
Definitely worth a look - I backed Villareal to beat Sevilla last month and they've got a good record against teams of a similar level to Almeria
Atletico Madrid v Racing Santander
Racing Santander have only won twice in their last sixteen league visits to the Vicente Calderon and only Osasuna have a worse away record this season.
Real Zaragoza v Real Sociedad
Over 2.5 goals - six of the last ten league meetings between these two at La Romareda have been over, including four of the last five. Seven of Real Sociedad's eight away games this season have also been over.
Busy week this week - Premiership and Greek tips coming tomorrow.
nPower Championship
Both 3:00pm GMT
Barnsley v Coventry
Under 2.5 goals
Reading v Burnley
Definitely worth a look at the draw or opposing Burnley in this one - the only team that's drawn more games at home than Reading have this season is Nottingham Forest and Burnley have drawn the most games away from home. It also helps that the Clarets haven't won in Berkshire for almost 30 years and five of the last ten league games between these at Reading have finished in draws.
My December predictions for La Liga managed a 50% strike rate, so I'm looking to improve that this month. The main issue was picking home winners amongst the 'second tier' of Spanish clubs so I'm going to be more cautious about those this month. It looks as if Espanyol, Villareal and Osasuna might be worth backing at home in January, so when they're at home I'll add them to the calendar. The goal markets were a bit more consistent (two wins from three recommendations in December) so depending on what comes up there might be some more of those in January.
At time of posting, all three of the recommendations below were drifting, so it's worth keeping an eye on the prices and recycling any wins from the Championship bets if necessary.
La Liga
7:00pm GMT
VILLAREAL v Almeria
Definitely worth a look - I backed Villareal to beat Sevilla last month and they've got a good record against teams of a similar level to Almeria
Atletico Madrid v Racing Santander
Racing Santander have only won twice in their last sixteen league visits to the Vicente Calderon and only Osasuna have a worse away record this season.
Real Zaragoza v Real Sociedad
Over 2.5 goals - six of the last ten league meetings between these two at La Romareda have been over, including four of the last five. Seven of Real Sociedad's eight away games this season have also been over.
Busy week this week - Premiership and Greek tips coming tomorrow.
Saturday, 1 January 2011
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