Thanks For Reading, But This Site Is Closed.

I'm afraid that it's for me with blogger.com.

I don't live in the USA so I'm not entirely sure why I should have to subject myself to the laws of another country and - by implication - accept the terms of Google AdSense when it comes to gambling.

I've been running this blog for almost a year without any kind of issue, but within days of having added a bet365.com banner to the site I got an e-mail from Google AdSense asking me to make changes to the site.

I'm quite happy to do that. The site is now closed. Thanks for reading - if you'd like to keep up with what I'm doing, please visit The Soccer Blog, Buzzin' Championship Football, 11 Lions or The Soccer Savant, I am currently importing this blog into Wordpress, where it will be known as http://tradersixtyfour.wordpress.com/.

Free Tips For Sunday 10th April

A bit of an experiment today - all the games apart from Ujpest/Debrecen are low stakes bets and two of them are double chances rather than dutches as the odds are better. Helsingborg are today's possible home bankers.

Allsvenskan
3:30pm
HELSINGBORG v Elfsborg
Helsingborg/draw double chance
Result: Helsingborg 1, Elfsborg 0

Hungary NB1
4:30pm
Ujpest v Debrecen
The only trap element is that Debrecen haven't won away from home, which may be the reason for the frankly ridiculous price they've been given. Ujpest/draw double chance.
Result: Ujpest 2, Debrecen 2 - Ujpest had to come from behind twice courtesy of a brace from Estonian strike Jarmo Ahjupera.

Norway
5:00pm
Aalesund v Haugesund
Double chance Aalesund or draw,although if this game came up later in the season with the same numbers I'd be recommending a home win.
Result: Aalesund 1, Haugesund 0


Tromso v Start
Dutch home/draw
Result: Tromso 2, Start 0

7:00pm
Rosenborg v Lillestrom
Rosenborg's two defeats to start the 2011 Tippeligaen after going undefeated in 2010 have come as a shock to those that have backed for the title (ie me) and although it's far to early to write them off, another loss would be catastrophic. I'm leaving them alone until they've reached some kind of equilibrium, so this is watching brief only although I'd be surprised if Rosenborg lose today.

Free Tips For Saturday 9th April

A real mixed bag today due to an incredible one selection coming up from my main system and several coming up using 'rough and ready'.


Here's the main one:


Croatia
5:00pm
Zadar v Osijek
The hosts have only lost twice at home this season - to Hajduk and Sibenik, although they've not played Dinamo Zagreb at the Stanovi Stadium yet - whereas Osijek have underperformed this season and have lost three of their last four road trips. Zadar haven't lost any of the last five meetings between these two and that record looks set to continue. Home/draw dutch.
Result: 1-1


Here are the 'rough and ready' selections: they're all home/draw dutches but it's worth remembering that I haven't been as thorough in my investigations for these games as I have for the Zadar/Osijek game and I would recommend smaller stakes for the following games. If anything caught my eye I'll add a note under the game. All kick offs are 3:00pm GMT, Ipswich are probable home bankers.


Barclays Premier League
Tottenham v Stoke
Tottenham haven't lost a home game in the Premier League on the weekend after an away Champions League game and haven't lost at home since August.
Result: Spurs 3, Stoke 2


nPower Championship
IPSWICH v Crystal Palace
Palace have lost eleven of their last 13 away games, although it's only fair to point out that they won this fixture last season.
Result: Ipswich 2, Crystal Palace 1

Portsmouth v Preston
Portsmouth are terrific value for the win, but this game is definitely worth home/draw dutching.
Result: Portsmouth 1, Preston 1


Scottish 1st Division
Falkirk v Partick Thistle
Result: Falkirk 2, Partick Thistle 3


Scottish 2nd Division
Ayr v Forfar
An Ayr win is good value
Result: Ayr 3, Forfar 1

Brechin v East Fife
Result: Brechin 1, East Fife 3


Scottish 3rd Division
Berwick v Montrose
Result: Berwick 0, Montrose 1

Queen's Park v Elgin City
Result: Queens Park 1, Elgin City 0

Should be back tomorrow, but if not enjoy the weekend.

Moving On...Free Tip For Friday

That's three working days as far as I'm concerned, AdSense has been disabled and there's nothing in my inbox...so normal service has been resumed.

Friday
Hungary
4:00pm
VASAS v MTK
Another Budapest derby and I'm recommend opposing MTK today - Vasas have a very impressive record in the league at the Rudolf Ilovsky stadium and they're actually the most improved home team in NB1 compared to last season. MTK? Not so much. The home/draw dutch should be safe here.
Result: Vasas 1, MTK 1 - after taking the lead, MTK were down to nine men at the end due to two 'tackles' that would have earned red cards in just about any version of football I can think of.

More tomorrow, enjoy the sunshine!

Open Statement To Google and AdSense (Part 2)

With regard to your e-mails of Monday 4th April and Monday 11th April 2011, I would like to point out that I have been writing this blog since April 2010 and had not previously received any correspondence whatsoever regarding compliance with your program (sic) policies. I am assuming that you are referring to the bet365 banner on the homepage.

I would like to make it clear that this blog is produced entirely in the United Kingdom, where gambling is legal. I have disabled AdSense as requested but I will not remove the banner unless specifically requested to do so: if you make that request or make any subsequent requests concerning the content of this blog I will close my Blogger account and move this blog elsewhere.

Mike Roberts
Bristol, United Kingdom.

Free Advice For Monday 4th April

Lost amongst all the noise of an admittedly extremely exciting weekend in European football is the no less amazing story coming from Norway: Rosenborg lost again yesterday, this time to a Stabaek side that had been hammered at home by Lillestrom before the international break. As in 'hammered 7-0'. At home. Let that sink in a bit.

The last Rosenborg lost two consecutive games in the Tippeligaen was at the end of the 2008 season, when they finished fifth, fifteen points behind Stabaek. I wouldn't completely rule them out of a title challenge, but in a competition that only plays 30 games a season, a six point deficit is a large one.

Today's games are both from Scandinavia, something a little different from Sweden as I'd not be surprised if AIK nick it - and if they're going to do that, they'll need to score.

Norway
6:00pm
Lillestrom v Brann
Lay Brann or dutch home/draw.
Result: Lillestrom 1, Brann 4. The early season craziness in Norway continues.


Sweden
7:00pm
Djurgardens v AIK
Lay 0-0.

Back tomorrow, possibly with some Champions League, but probably with some more comments about Accrington Stanley.

Free Tips For Sunday April 3rd

Hungary
4:30pm
DEBRECEN (nap) v Gyori
Intriguing game between these two: Debrecen play like champions at home record (unbeaten at home in the last 20 league games) but like relegation candidates away; Gyori have only lost five times in their last 20 aways but have only won five road trips over the same period. This game was made for dutching home win/draw or laying Gyori.
Result: Debrecen 1, Gyori 1

Norway
5:00pm
Start (nb) v Stromsgodset
Dutch the home win/draw and back over 2.5 goals.
Result: Start 5, Stromsgodset 1. Which is what happens when you have a man sent off within 10 minutes of kickoff.

The Rosenborg/Stabaek game is actually this evening, which is fine from a 'wasn't going to get involved' point of view but rubbish if I had been. I try to check kick off times as often as possible, but I obviously need to check multiple sources.

Back tomorrow with more tips, might have some tentative recommendations for the Champions League this week.

Free Tip For Saturday April 2nd

With Greece having reached 27 games and Belgium into the playoffs, it's time to wave those competitions goodbye for this season. I'll be going back to looking at Portugal next weekend, so it's basically Croatia, Hungary, Norway and Sweden from now on, with occasional forays into the end of season action in England and possibly MLS (if I can work out what the hell they're actually doing over there).

Yes, there is only one main recommendation for today, but that's a sign that the 'winter' seasons are coming to an end. There are a lot of games tomorrow.

Hungary
4:00pm
SZOMBATHELY (nap) v Kecskemeti
There's enough here to suggest a Szombathely win without being bothered with anything else. However, in the interests of risk management Szombathely draw no bet might be better: Kecskemeti haven't managed an away draw for over 20 games and that's enough of a trap for me.
Result: Szombathely 1, Kecskemeti 0 - Peter Toth scored the winner in the second minute of injury time.

Norway
I'm expecting Rosenborg to batter Stabaek today, but the Rosenborg win price isn't worth taking so I'm leaving it alone. It'll be interesting to see what happens though.

Free Tips For Friday 1st April

It's tempting to throw some ridiculous tips in for April fool's day but I don't think anyone would notice ;-)

Hungary
4:00pm
Kaposvari v Vasas
Bit of a warning: the last time I recommended opposing Vasas in an away game with a strong favourite, they won: they're still averaging less than one goal away from home this season and Kaposvari are averaging 2.7 at home.
Result: Kaposvari 0, Vasas 1. I'll be reviewing the policy of opposing Vasas away from home as a matter of urgency as it's clearly the wrong call! 

6:00pm
Ferencvaros (nb) v Ujpest
The biggest Budapest derby: some trap elements here as Ferencvaros have lost three of their last four home games against their biggest cross town rivals, but today's game is probably Fradi's best chance of beating them for a while. Ujpest's away form this season has been awful.
Result: Ferencvaros 1, Ujpest 0

Norway
6:00pm
VALERENGA (nap) v Aalesund
I eventually managed to get a Tippeligaen preview done, you can find it here. I'm also going to recommend using a lower stake for this game as this is only Week 2 in Norway and with Rosenborg's defeat last week I think it's safe to say that things haven't exactly gone to form so far. Valerenga didn't lose at home last season and I don't think they'll lose this one - Aalesund don't like travelling to the Ullevaal (they've lost seven of their last eight there) and I don't think they'll get anything this evening.
Update: dutching Valerenga/draw is pointless, it's probably better to lay Aalesund.
Result: Valerenga 2, Aalesund 0